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 Sessions & Events |
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Show Daily - Wednesday
Teal looks to the future
Analysts from Teal Group have released a ten-year forecast for commercial jetliner orders, which the company believes is entering a severe down cycle. Click to enlarge |
By comparison, over the last ten years, some 6350 commercial jet transports worth $396 billion (also in 2003 dollars) were delivered. The new Teal forecast covers all Airbus and Boeing (Booth 701) jets, which account for all of the world jet transports equipped with over 100 passenger seats except for Embraer's 195. It also excludes the former Soviet jetliners, which together hold well under 1% of the market.
Teal analysts predict the "trough" year of this down cycle will be 2004 and 2005, which is expected to see 447 and 452 deliveries, respectively. One reason for the pessimism for the next two years is the presence of 500 "very useful" planes in storage, which are accompanied by another 1000 "semi-useful" planes. According to Airclaims, as of mid-August 2003, parked aircraft totaled in at 2153, or over 12% of the entire fleet.
The analysts believe that a recovery will begin in the second half of 2006, with a new peak of 846 airplanes reached in 2009, and declining again to 733 transports in 2012, the last year in the forecast.
- Jean L. Broge
A funny thing happened on the way to strategic planning
Adam Pilarsky used humor to drive home important points during his keynote presentation yesterday morning. |
In a lighthearted but insight-filled keynote address yesterday morning to open ACE proceedings, Adam Pilarski of Avitas had as many questions as he did answers about where the commercial airline industry is heading—or should be heading. Pilarski identified himself as an economist with some knowledge of engineering, but one may suspect he is a comedian at heart.
The topic of his presentation was airline strategic planning, and in as serious a tone as he could manage Pilarski emphasized that there is a difference between strategy and tactics.
Responding to acts of terrorism and challenges such as the SARS epidemic requires tactical responses to get through them short-term. They also require strategic responses because although such events cannot be predicted, "their consequences can be," Pilarski said.
Strategic planning should be rather easy in the commercial airline industry, given that so much of what happens is predictable if one takes the time to understand what's happening in the world, according to Pilarski. He said energy prices, the rise of Asian aviation, Japan's role in the world economy, and terrorism all are examples of issues and events from which derive predictable change.
Predicting energy prices has proved a confounding business for countless economists, but, Pilarski pointed out, upon examination of long-term trends they would find that the price of crude oil in the U.S. has been in the $10-20 range for a century, albeit with spikes for the exigencies of particular periods. "There is no scarcity of oil," he said, and hence there is no reason to think prices will rise significantly.
In concluding his presentation, Pilarsky had three recommendations for airlines: plan for the long term, live for the short term, and be prepared for heightened competition.
And he wasn't kidding.
- Patrick Ponticel
Cold working
Top: The tangential (hoop) residual stresses resulting from StressWave cold working a countersink hole in a typical aluminum joint configuration Bottom: The residual stress resulting from split sleeve cold working the same fastened joint as above. The light gray band in each figure is associated with the crossover from compressive to tensile residual stress indicated by the dotted line Click to enlarge |
Hole cold working has been used for many years to improve the integrity and efficiency of metallic structures. Most hole cold working is performed by pulling precision tapered mandrels through tight-tolerance, undersized starting holes with numerous pre- and post-processing production steps. Mandrel cold working is typically done using either the split sleeve or split mandrel methods.
The split sleeve method uses a solid mandrel along with a pre-lubricated, one-time-use split sleeve. The split mandrel method uses a collapsible mandrel and liquid cetyl alcohol lubricant. Both of these processes are very effective at mitigating the damaging effects of fatigue in metal structures; however, a large assortment of process steps, expendable and disposable tooling, and automation difficulties are significant drawbacks.
StressWave's patented cold working process improves the fatigue lives of holes in metal structure by locally treating the metal prior to machining the hole, according to the company. This feature, as well as other aspects of the process, offers a number of advantages for manufacturing fatigue-resistant components and assembled structure. Existing manufacturing and assembly equipment can be retrofitted to accommodate various StressWave adaptive devices. These adaptive devices can be actively or passively controlled, work effectively over a wide range of processing speeds and production rates, and can be controlled to adjust for varying thickness of the part or assembly. The flexibility of the StressWave cold working process allows it to be used upstream of final assembly allowing order of magnitude cost reductions when compared to mandrel cold working methods.
- Jean L. Broge
NASA-approved materials
Space travel is an inherently dangerous undertaking for both humans and spacecraft. Some risks are obvious: humans are confined in a small, airtight vehicle that launches atop powerful propulsion systems and then travels at high speeds in a vacuum. Other risks are not as obvious: systems can malfunction, wires may short-circuit, and materials may not be compatible with the applications for which they were chosen.
NASA imposes strict requirements on manned flight operations because any failure, regardless of how small, can be catastrophic. Material manufacturers and suppliers are often surprised when a material commonly provided to industry is not approved for use on manned spacecraft. Often, the reason is a lack of test data in environments that simulate those encountered in space applications, especially oxygen-enriched conditions, which significantly increase the likelihood of combustion and the propagation of fire.
During the Advanced Composites technical session today at 1:00 pm in room 512B as part of the Aerospace Manufacturing Technology Conference & Exposition, researchers from NASA and Integrated Concepts and Research Corp. will introduce requirements for flight approval of non-metallic materials. Also introduced during the session will be testing requirements, procedures for submitting materials for testing, options if a material fails testing, and the Materials and Processes Technical Information System (MAPTIS), a database housing all test data produced in accordance with NASA-STD-6001, Flammability, Odor, Offgassing, and Compatibility Requirements and Test Procedures for Materials in Environments that Support Combustion.
- Jean L. Broge
Wing design
The Advanced Aerodynamics Department at Bombardier Aerospace (Booth 1002) is developing a multi-disciplinary methodology for the design of commercial transport wings. The approach involves building each component in a stepwise fashion from the ground up and integrating the engineering analysis and design tools already in place at the company.
Development efforts have been directed to the integration of low- and high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics codes into the multi-disciplinary environment, the development of conceptual wing structural design codes, wing weight estimation codes, and codes for the prediction of wing static aeroelastic deformation under load.
As part of the World Aviation Congress Aerodynamics I technical session yesterday, researchers provided an overview of the development and validation of the various components of the methodology, as well as their integration into an engineering approach to multi-disciplinary optimization. It will take place in room 511F at 1:00 p.m.
- Jean L. Broge
Governments can help recovery, panel says
"Our purpose is simple," said Giovanni Bisignani of the IATA organization that he heads. "It's to have our industry recognized by governments for what it is: a mass transit system that provides vital global economic benefits to travelers, tourism, and industry. |
"Our industry is just now emerging from the worst crisis in its 100-year history," said Giovanni Bisignani, Director General and CEO of IATA (International Air Transportation Association). To put the word "crisis" into perspective, he noted that airline losses from September 11, 2001 through the end of 2002 were $25 billion. This year, another $5 billion will be lost on international services and up to $10 billion system-wide, Bisgnani added.
He and some of the other panelists made the point that a successful future for air travel depends not only on what airlines do in response to terroristic acts, SARs, and other factors, but on what governments do—or don't do.
Bisignani believes the government should recognize "our industry for what it is: a mass transit system that provides vital global economic benefits to travelers, tourism, and industry. It should no longer be treated as a luxury product catering to an elite."
The airline regulatory system was established in 1944 and needs to be modernized, said Bisignani. Specifically, the system of bilateral air-traffic agreements should give way to regional "wide open skies," he said. In addition, airlines "should be free to ally and merge to achieve the needed economies of scale."
- Patrick Ponticel
Structures then and now
One recent evolution in commercial transport structure has been the emergence of monolithic structure applications. Monolithic structures reduce the number of parts that must be managed, eliminate sub-assembly operations, and contribute to determinant assembly practices. During the Advanced Fabrication Techniques technical session in Room 512D at 1:00 pm today as part of the Aerospace Manufacturing Technology Conference & Exhibition, researchers from Boeing Commercial Airplanes (Booth 701) compare the cost of three components from the Boeing 727-200 and their counterparts on the 737-600.
The mid 1960s 737-200 components were assembled from sheet metal details. The mid 1990s 737-600 components are monolithic designs and use superplastic forming, casting, and NC machining technologies. The built-up solutions and the monolithic solutions are compared based on cost infrastructures from the 1960s and the 1990s.
- Jean L. Broge
Quality system registration
Quality Management Institute (QMI), a division of Canadian Standards Association (CSA) Group, provides registration service to the SAE AS9100 QMS (Quality Management Systems) Standard. The AS9100 standard was developed by the aerospace industry and focuses on aerospace-specific requirements that support the FAA FAR Title 14 Part 21. Safety, airworthiness, and product conformity are key aspects of the standard. The AS9100 standard has been harmonized internationally and published throughout the world as AS/EN/JIQS 9100. The QMI audit process focuses on the supplier's conformance to the AS9100 requirements, while providing a value-added service to highlight opportunities within the suppliers system for improvements with process and variation management.
For more information, visit Booth 707
Lifecycle management
The latest release of the Teamcenter Aerospace and Defense product lifecycle management (PLM) solution from EDS enables global program and team collaboration to manage complex products, long development cycles, and stringent processes. The solution features a secure, Web-native environment with PLM capabilities for program-driven change and configuration, audit, scheduling, document, and CDRL/SDRL (contract delivery requirement list/subcontract delivery requirement list) data management. It is based on Teamcenter with solutions targeted at lifecycle domain issues and business challenges. The open, collaborative environment leads to improved product-related decisions and more cost-effective products, according to the company.
For more information, visit Booth 2306
Coolant concentrate
Missile Lube 5 EH is a hybrid water-soluble concentrate from Hangsterfer's Laboratories, Inc. that combines vegetable, synthetic, and mineral oil for improved lubricity. The coolant was designed to serve numerous applications and material types including boring, reaming, and deep hole drilling of aluminum alloys. Missile Lube 5 EH can be used at lower concentrations than conventional oil-based coolants because of its improved lubricity, which also permits a switch from straight cutting oils while still achieving the same surface finishes.
For more information, visit Booth 1622
Beam drilling
Electron beam drilling from Owens Corning is suitable when large volumes of precision holes must be drilled. The technique will drill in metals up to 0.375-in thick and hole sizes from .001 to .060 in. Typical precision is ±0.001 in for hole size and placement accuracy of ±0.0005 in; aspect ratios as high as 25:1 have been achieved. Holes from 20 to 90° to the surface are common in aerospace applications, and the company has successfully applied electron beam drilling to ceramics.
For more information, visit Booth 2104
Fuel-nozzle assembly
The Tri-clad composite fuel-nozzle seal assembly from EGC Enterprises Inc. features a Thermafoil flexible graphite core and 0.002-in 300 series stainless steel jacket assembled with a stainless compression limiter, which also doubles as a holder for ease of assembly. The seal can be used at the attachment flange pad between the body of the high-temperature fuel nozzle and combustion housing to prevent deformation of fuel nozzle flanges during thermal cycling that cause leakage and loss of engine performance. The Thermafoil core is resilient and operates as an infinite life spring when contained in the metal jacket to provide sealability during shape and size changes to the mating components during thermal cycling and soak back.
For more information, visit Booth 621
Data capture
The MPT9100 from Epic Data International Inc. is a shop-floor data collection and display terminal that provides two-way information visibility in manufacturing. It collects data on time and attendance, project costs, and tool tracking, and also manages a range of standard inventory management transactions and manufacturing tasks. Improved security technologies meet stringent DOD security regulations for secured access and control of contractor manufacturing facilities, corporate information, and equipment. The MPT9100 offers identification capabilities and digital inputs/outputs. Other features include a large color screen with trans-reflective touch-screen display to enable secure shop-floor access to drawings and documents, hands-free two-way voice communication, and available voice-over-IP capability.
For more information, visit Booth 610
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