By 2010, the automotive industry's electronic pulse will pump a dual-voltage system into more than a million production vehicles.

A blue ribbon Convergence panel featuring Francois Castaing, President of Castaing and Associates; Hans Gustavsson, Senior Vice President of Product and Process Engineering for Volvo Car Corp.; Norio Omori, Senior Managing Director of Engineering Research & Development Center for DENSO Corp.; Donald Runkle, Executive Vice President of Delphi Automotive Systems; Franz Wressnigg, Group President, Siemens Automotive Systems Group/Chairman, Siemens Automotive Corp.; with moderator William Powers, Vice President, Research for Ford Motor Co., agreed that a dual-voltage system is the electronics wave of the future.

The group's shared prediction is a safe bet since brake-by-wire, electromagnetic valve timing, electric heating, and electrically driven pumps need dual voltage. "This is a rather easy forecast since we presently have more than one voltage level in vehicles already," Wressnigg admitted.

One technology in particular seems destined to ignite in popularity. "I believe that diesel (engines) will have a great future," said Gustavsson. Delphi is one company that has invested heavily in diesel technology. "The image in the U.S. of diesels is: slow, stinky, rough, and noisy devices. That's not the case anymore," said Runkle, adding, "If fuel prices were similar to Europe, I think you'd see diesel (engines) take off in the U.S." The electronics technology used in common-rail diesels have already re-shaped engine performance. "Diesel is right there with the fuel cell, if not better," Powers said in making a wheels-to-wheels comparison.

Advanced hybrid vehicles will be a 2010 player, but panelists hedged on the volume count. One hurdle is cost. "A full hybrid is a question of affordability for the consumer," said Gustavsson.

Fuel cells are inching closer to production, and will likely arrive in PEM form. "You'll probably see PEM fuel cells in the next five to six years," predicted Castaing.

As for other 2010 expectations, panelists agree that emissions and fuel economy will remain front burner items throughout the decade as will developing technology to handle increased electrical loads. The concept of total-vehicle-energy management may become a standard means of minimizing system cost and optimizing vehicle efficiency. "The typical vehicle's electrical loads will soon exceed power levels of a residential house, which is about 1.5 kW," said Runkle, adding, "To simply place large generators and batteries on the vehicle without increases in efficiency and intelligent power utilization would result in increased fuel consumption and mass penalties the vehicle cannot afford."

One certainty about the future: history either will or will not repeat itself. "Whatever we predict, we are destined to be surprised," promised Omori.