Fuel cells start to look real
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Fuel-cell experts give their views
Last fall, the Northeast Advanced Vehicle Consortium (NAVC) of Boston released a report entitled Future Wheels: Interviews with 42 Global Experts on the Future of Fuel Cells for Transportation, Fuel Cell Infrastructure, and a Fuel Cell Primer. In the new survey, which is available free at the consortium's website (www.navc.org), the goal was to ask experts on fuel-cell transportation technology and infrastructure if there was any consensus on major issues related to the future of fuel-cell vehicles. The second section of the 89-page report presents a review of the current status of fuel-cell technology for transportation and the related infrastructure written by M.J. Bradley & Associates. The report was funded by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.
Among the major findings:
- Direct hydrogen stored onboard the vehicle is the fueling option that most experts believe will be the long-term choice for both passenger and transit fuel-cell vehicles.
- Hydrogen for fuel-cell cars may come from many feedstocks. Many experts expressed the opinion that there will not be one global "fuel" choice, as with gasoline and diesel for IC engines today; rather, different geographical regions will select the hydrogen feedstock that is most appropriate for that area (for example, geothermal electrolysis in Iceland, ethanol in Iowa, CNG in Texas, and so forth). The emissions associated with the "well to wheels" use of hydrogen depend on the feedstock and reformation process.
- There was no consensus on which onboard reformation fuel would be the best option or if onboard reformation should happen.
- The viability of methanol as an onboard reformate was a divisive question. While some experts did not have strong opinions about methanol, the majority were either vigorously opposed to the use of methanol for a variety of reasons - with health and safety concerns most often cited - or favored its use as an onboard fuel or as a hydrogen feedstock. Overall, more of the experts were opposed to the use of methanol.
- The majority opinion was that hydrogen storage technology should be the focus of R&D dollars. Breakthroughs in storage technology would have the biggest impact in accelerating the acceptance and commercialization of fuel-cell vehicles.
- Opinions were divided over the role hybrid-electric vehicles will play in the future. Some experts believe that hybrids are strictly transitional vehicles; other believe that hybrids are a threat to the fuel-cell vehicle market; and yet others felt that advancements in hybrid-electric technology would benefit fuel-cell technology.
- According to the interviews, the fuel-cell market for transportation will develop first in the bus fleet market at high, governmental-subsidized prices, and that significant market share of the light-duty transportation market is more than ten years out.
- Codes and standards related to hydrogen storage and transportation need significant work in the near term before there can be any significant market share for fuel-cell vehicles.
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