"We're on the cusp of some major, fundamental changes in energy. In fact, it's already starting," said Dr. Steve Millett, Thought Leader and Manager of Battelle's forecasts.

Oil fields could be supplemented by fuel farms while gas stations morph into energy stations. Electricity will be paid for in a fashion similar to the shifting rates for long distance telephone service. Household habits will shift as people realize it's more economical to run the dishwasher after midnight rather than after dinner. These are just some of the predictions made by a panel of energy experts from Battelle and the national laboratories that it manages and co-manages for the U.S. Department of Energy, including Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The drivers behind the predicted energy innovations include economics, R&D, worldwide environmental regulation, consumer behavior and preferences, national energy policy, and liability and legal issues.

The expert focus group from Battelle and the aforementioned labs has identified the top ten most economically impactful energy innovations by the year 2010.

• A shifting energy industry structure - Substantial innovations in the energy industry and its technologies are occurring. Deregulation of the natural gas and electric utilities will continue, resulting in more competition and mergers. Oil companies will become energy companies, competing in both the mobile and stationary energy markets. "The convergence of the electric, gas, telecommunications, and water industries likely will result in one-stop shopping," said Henry Cialone, Vice President and General Manager of Energy Products at Battelle.
• Hybrid vehicles - With rising gas prices fresh in the minds of consumers, the idea of hybrid cars doesn't sound so bad. Mileage of 3.4 L/100 km (70 mpg) will create a lot of converts. The first generation of these vehicles is already here as seen with Insight, the sporty two-seater from Honda. Hybrid vehicles use smaller, more efficient internal-combustion engines and power from electric batteries for an extra boost during acceleration. "U.S. automakers have produced a next-generation of hybrid concept cars that will pave the way to 2.9 L/100-km (80-mpg), five-passenger sedans," said Tony Schaffhauser, ORNL. However, the experts add that while making progress in the next ten years, the full transition may require decades.
• Smart energy management systems - Computers, the Internet, and Global Positioning Systems will increase the efficiency of transportation by reducing traffic congestion and delays. Their applications will include heating, air conditioning, and business equipment. They also will play vital roles in efficiency of energy production and distribution systems such as pipelines, refineries, power plants, and transmission lines.
• Distributed power generation - Some experts are saying the current national power grid may not be able to meet skyrocketing demand. "People and businesses are demanding more reliable power sources," said Bobi Garrett, NREL. "The economic cost of a power disruption in information-driven business is extremely high." The experts believe power may be generated locally for neighborhoods and individual residences and businesses to make blackouts a thing of the past. This will be done via micro-turbines, internal-combustion engines, and fuel cells. Increased use of natural gas is predicted because it is clean, cheap, and available.
• Fuel cells - There has been a lot of progress in fuel-cell technology over the past 10 years, but much more needs to be happen over the coming decade. Fuel cells will become increasingly popular for transportation and for portable and stationary power generation over the next decade. "These systems will provide power at competitive rates while drastically reducing the impact of power generation on the environment," said Don McConnell, Associate Lab Director for Energy Science and Technology, PNNL. The experts noted that before being accepted by the public, fuel cells must be made smaller and cheaper.
• Gas to liquid conversions - Scientists predict the development of chemical engineering processes to transform hydrocarbon compounds from gases to liquids, permitting more flexible use and storage of fuels. One example is the conversion of natural gas to diesel fuel for transportation. "Gas-to-liquids technology offers an exciting, economically attractive opportunity to convert natural gas from remote locations, which otherwise would be wasted, into easily transported and inherently clean fuels," said Denny Stephens, Senior Research Scientist for Battelle's Energy Products.
• Advanced batteries - Batteries will continue a 20-year trend of advancements into the next decade. These next-generation batteries will be based on lithium polymer technology and have about three times as much energy capability as those currently on the market. These developments will play a more crucial role as the transition is made to hybrid and electric vehicles.
• Energy farms - The use of bio-engineered crops for fuels will be hurried along by the genetic revolution that permits cultivation of crops to produce fuels such as ethanol. "We will grow gasoline, so to speak, to lessen our dependence on imported oil," Millett said. "With advances in DNA engineering, we will be able to grow energy as well as food crops."
• Solar energy - Considered by some to be the ultimate sustainable energy, solar energy is also difficult to capture and store large quantities in a cost-effective manner. But Battelle experts see substantial improvements over the next decade. "Advancements have been made using solar energy for the heating and cooling of buildings, and recent advances in the solar cell efficiency hold the promise of making widespread terrestrial application a reality," said Garrett. Progress is continually being made in the development of efficient photovoltaic cells.
• Methane hydrate crystal mining - Geologists have discovered rich deposits of frozen natural gas crystals on the ocean bottom. "Tapping this reserve would be a quantum leap in our ability to provide energy for the future. Although some new government programs are exploring recovery methods and associated ramifications, there haven't been any commercial attempts to retrieve this vast reserve," said Gary Brawley, Program Manager in Battelle's Equipment Development and Mechanical Systems Department. The experts expect that this energy source will emerge in the next decade to add to natural gas production.

Jean L. Broge

AEI September 2000
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