Tech Briefs
Future plans and predictions

In lieu of a crystal ball, four senior-level automotive executives gave their best guesses as to future automotive innovations at Kettering University's 10th annual Industrial Symposium in Flint, MI. Founded in 1919 as General Motors Institute, Kettering University graduated more mechanical engineers in 1998 than any other U.S. university.

"Making predictions can be risky," said Neil Ressler, Vice President, Research and Vehicle Technology at Ford Motor Co. "I've heard of a nearly 100-year-old conversation between Henry Ford and Thomas Edison in which Ford discussed an idea for a mass-produced, reasonably priced automobile driven by an internal-combustion engine. Edison shook his head and said, 'Forget it, you're never going to get people to sit on top of an explosion.'"

Of course, Edison's prediction was wrong, but while the internal combustion engine has been a vehicle staple for decades, no vehicle system is immune to change. One example is the electrical system. "A giant step will be made when we upgrade the vehicle's electrical system to higher voltage," said Ressler. With new components such as CD changers, heated mirrors, heated seats, rear air-conditioning blowers, GPS receivers, just to name a few, Ressler added that vehicles contain "enough microcomputers to run a moon mission—today's 14-volt alternator is running very close to its theoretical capacity," he added. "If we try to make it larger, the alternator noise alone will become so high that customers would find it objectionable. And the wiring for a 12-volt system to meet future needs would have to be so thick that the weight of the wiring harness could become a concern to CAFE-conscious companies."

While Ressler believes that the 12-volt system will remain as a backup to operate most of the vehicle's lights and basic electronics, changing to a 42-volt integrated starter/alternator will provide nearly instantaneous starts, as well as sufficient electrical power to actuate intake and exhaust valves. In a 42-volt world, camshafts, cam followers, water pumps, air-conditioning compressors, power steering, and power brakes might all be electrically driven rather than belt-driven.

"Eliminating belts and cams, switching accessories to electrical drive, and dedicating the engine to actually running the car will greatly improve its efficiency."

Lawrence Burns, General Motors Vice President in Research & Development and Planning, agreed that what is common in today's vehicle will be outdated in future vehicles. "Most of today's mechanical systems will be replaced by integrated electronic systems that enhance driving performance and vehicle safety," Burns said.

However, as J.T. Battenberg III, President and CEO of Delphi Automotive Systems, pointed out, engineers will have to address many new situations arising from the predicted widespread electronic applications. "The industry must decide how to modify current vehicle architecture to accept rapid new technologies, (determine) how to perfect existing electronics when a vehicle model changes, and (know) how to integrate it all," he said.

Dennis Cuneo, Vice President of Corporate Affairs for Toyota Motor Manufacturing North America, predicted that the technology with the brightest future is the gasoline-electric hybrid system, which uses both gasoline and electric power to provide better fuel mileage and less emissions. However, his prediction also involves cooperation. "We will continue to see alliances among automakers around the globe—and among the auto industry and other industries—to develop environmentally friendly technologies."

"Anyone who thinks the auto industry is a mature industry is misinformed," concluded Burns. "The most exciting and rewarding years for our industry are yet to come."