Doing business in China

The move from a planned to a market-driven economy puts China on course to become a worldwide vehicle-producing contender. "By 2010, China will be number three in terms of light vehicle production globally," said Michael Robinet, Vice President of Global Forecasting for CSM Worldwide, during Monday's Original Equipment Supplier Association (OESA)-sponsored panel discussion on China's automotive industry.

European, Japanese, Korean, and U.S.-based automakers have established manufacturing locales in the Communist country as a means of increasing their worldwide market share. For many years, China's automotive market seemed destined to remain highly restricted. But since December 2001, more than 2300 laws and regulations have been amended and approximately 830 laws have been abolished to comply with WTO (World Trade Organization) rules.

"There's a great opportunity, but tread with caution," advised Timothy Donovan, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Managing Director of Tenneco Automotive's International Group, citing excess capacity and corresponding pricing pressures as one of many expected market trends.

One source of overcapacity is the supply base. Donovan estimates that 1000 companies in China offer ride-control products. "They don't present that much competition (to Tenneco) because they lack advanced technologies," said Donovan, who believes many of the companies eventually will cease to exist or focus on the aftermarket.

China's automotive landscape includes more than 100 vehicle assemblers. "I think—at this stage of the game—the Koreans are the fiercest competition," said Nancy Gougarty, General Motors Global Customer Director for Delphi, adding that Korean automakers and part suppliers typically "don't over-engineer." Taken as a whole, China's "market is coming of age, modernizing, and achieving better economies of scale," said Robinet.

Doing business in China often requires a nimble approach to production. "There is usually only a six-month timeframe—after receiving an order—to get ready for production," said John Wehrenberg, Senior Director of Asian Operations for ArvinMeritor. According to Wehrenberg, tooling, manufacturing and processes must be ready in six months, which is the usual time frame in North America for building the tooling. "That's just some of the market dynamics," he said.

- Kami Buchholz

Electronics advances will be evolutionary and revolutionary

Electronics technology now dominates the automotive industry, accounting for a full 90% of innovation, and software is becoming "critically important." As those technologies move forward, they face three revolutionary challenges, according to one of yesterday's Technology Theater keynoters, Hans-Georg Frischkorn.

Frischkorn, Senior Engineering Vice President for Electric/Electronics at BMW Group in Munich, predicted that automotive electronics will continue driving a number of evolutionary changes, though he also spotlighted three areas where its impact is revolutionary.

One major shift is that vehicles are becoming nodes on the Internet, receiving data such as GPS and navigation information, telephone numbers, and e-mail. Telematics may also make it possible to improve handling by telling the vehicle about upcoming road conditions so that transmissions can shift or body control systems can adjust for bumps, he explained. The integration of telematics is happening today, Frischkorn said, though not at a breakneck pace.

Another change is that by-wire technologies are replacing mechanical technologies. That's already happened with by-wire acceleration. Steer- and brake-by-wire are also starting to see acceptance, he said.

"The third area that I clearly see as revolutionary is personalization," said Frischkorn, citing examples such as setting seat positions and radio stations as well as moving favorite phone numbers to different vehicles automatically when the driver inserts the key into the door lock.

These three revolutionary technologies will be driven by the closely related field of electronics and software. Though 90% of automotive innovation is based on electronics, Frischkorn explained that there may well be fewer electronic control modules in the vehicles of the future. "In the next five to 10 years, we at BMW have a goal to get to half the current number of ECUs," he said.

Software has played an increasingly important role as the number of ECUs has soared, and it will be equally important as engineers move to put fewer ECUs in a vehicle.

"The amount of software in a car is doubling every two to three years, and we do not see that changing in the next generation of cars," Frischkorn said. "Software is at the point where it will increase to about one-third the cost of a car in the next few years. It may have reached that already in some premium-level cars, and will migrate downward in the future," he said.

If automotive suppliers are to continue bringing new functions into the vehicle at a rapid pace, one of the big steps will be to adopt open architectures. This will simplify next-generation designs, particularly if future architectures are designed for software re-use.

This architecture may well follow the client-server approach used in the computer industry. It will facilitate a reduction in the ECU count, but will require advances in some components. "This means that the development of intelligent actuators and sensors will be critical," Frischkorn said.

A related change will be the implementation of more plug-and-play technologies, he added.

To continue making advances in other functionality and improve reliability, electronic components have to be designed for testability. "If we're not able to test at the component level, we will not catch all the bugs," he said.

A key driver for many of the forthcoming changes is that many customers want the same entertainment and information services in the car as they have in their homes. However, quality of many of these services must be improved.

Cell-phone users are accustomed to losing connections inside a hall like Cobo Center, and PC users accept that their systems might crash occasionally. But when these technologies are brought into the vehicle and linked together, as when a phone uses the vehicle's voice-recognition and sound system, these failures are not acceptable. "Our challenge is that when we integrate these technologies into the vehicle, we improve the quality," Frischkorn said.

- Terry Costlow

Vibration testing

Though Unholtz-Dickie was founded in 1959, it has roots in World War II during which time one of the founders worked for Lockheed. Stringing up a wing in a conference room, Unholtz was able to simulate and capture the noise of the aircraft to prove that vibration to the wing had caused the military to loose as many planes to vibration as it had to dogfights. According to Vince Murray, Regional Manager and Applications Engineer for Unholtz-Dickie, those experiments "gave birth to the very first shaker."

While still having a huge presence in the aerospace industry, as well as many others, its work in the automotive industry has increased consistently over the years, as has the range, including vibration tests on alternators, batteries, instrument clusters, engine components, and car doors. "As our technology is getting smaller and better and we can capture what's really going on, the more and more [engineers] are able to reproduce exactly what's happening [to a system]," said Murray. "At one time you had [engineers at organizations like] SAE, the U.S. Navy, and the U.S. Army, who provided curves that generalized their best guess about what [systems] were [experiencing]. And the whole industry for years used that. People want to go closer and closer to what's really happening because they feel it's a better test [of system behavior]."

One of the things that makes it a better test, according to Murray, is the company's T-Series shaker, which uses the Induct-A-Ring (IAR) armature. "The uniqueness of our product is that most conventional products use wire in the armature," he said. Besides electrical windings, other armatures also include high voltage potentials, epoxy bonded mechanical joints between insulated wires, high current leads to bring ac current in and out, and high-pressure water hoses to cool the coil.

By contrast, the IAR is a two-piece metal structure, with a solid, forged aluminum ring bolted into a ribbed upper table casting. The electrical connection is inductively coupled so that ac currents are induced without electrical or cooling connections to the moving element. "The performance on the T-Series Induct-A-Rings start at around 15,000 lb (6804 kg), all the way up to 50,000 lb (22,680 kg)," said Murray. "But we have a lot of special versions just for shock and just for shock-response spectrum."

The company's products also include power amplifiers, calibration systems, and stroke thrushers, which reproduce transient waveforms (crash, drop, impact) often required to test airbag sensors, ABS, active suspension components, and other automotive parts.

- Jean L. Broge

Drive-by-wire technology advances slowly

The drive-by-wire movement is going to emerge slowly, but many factors will make it a viable technology in many different areas, according to participants at Monday's Drive-by-Wire panel. No timetable was placed on the adoption rate, but all agreed that fuel economy and emissions improvements will drive an electronics technology that should enhance driver satisfaction.

Moderator Wilfried Achenbach, Director of Chassis Controls and Electrical/Electronic Architectures at the Chrysler Group, said the technology is "mainly an enabler for higher value, improving fuel efficiency, and reducing emissions while improving comfort and safety." He noted that the various drive-by-wire technologies range from throttle-by-wire to steering-, shifting- and braking-by-wire, adding that each will all be adopted on different timeframes.

Perhaps overstating the case that drive-by-wire technologies should make cars easier to drive, Charles Heine, President of Dana Corp.'s Technology Development and Diversified Products Group, added that "drive-by-wire lets a driver with low skills drive like a Formula One driver."

While reliability and redundancy are big issues, software and architectures will be key design issues for developers. "Software will be a big challenge. It's hard for us to realize the amount of software in a vehicle," said Craig Stephens, Manager of Powertrain Control Research and Advanced Engineering at Ford Motor Co.

The complexity of writing software for by-wire systems will force automakers to forge even closer links with their suppliers, panelists agreed. "Software is the hardest part, so integration between software suppliers and OEMs will be critical," Heine said.

Since steer- and brake-by-wire are obviously mission-critical systems, reliability will be a major concern. The volume of software will force both hardware and software developers to work on similar systems. "The complexity of software makes it impossible to test every aspect of software. That means standardized architectures will be incredibly important," Stephens said.

Standardization will also simplify the hardware side of the design, panelists agreed. "Standardization will let suppliers sell products across multiple OEM platforms and give us economies of scale to bring down costs," Heine said. He added that OEMs can potentially provide significant differentiation even when they use identical hardware.

Addressing the reliability issue, a Boeing spokesman explained that by-wire technologies have been used in the aircraft industry since the 1970s. Though some portions of a plane use only single systems, "Mission critical applications still have double or triple redundancy," said Don Winter, director of Network Centric Operations at Boeing Phantom Works.

Winter predicted that automakers and aircraft companies will work together, sharing information. Aircraft manufacturers have more experience with by-wire technologies, but automakers can trade information "in areas where they have invested more, like speech recognition," Winter said.

Concerns about reliability will prompt many OEMs to introduce by-wire technologies as an assist to hydraulic or mechanical systems. That focus on reliability will also ripple out to power supplies. Heine noted that extensive implementation of drive-by-wire systems will force manufacturers to move to 42-V power systems. Designers must also look at ways to provide power to the electronic system.

"It's not just the amount of power, we've got to improve the quality. When a fan belt breaks or the battery dies, electronically driven by-wire systems will still need a reliable supply of electricity," said Rainer Kallenbach, General Manager of the Asset Group at Bosch.

Panelists feel that drive-by-wire technologies will probably see initial acceptance in Europe, where some manufacturers have already unveiled the technology. In Japan, there's plenty of interest, but no market visibility, Kallenbach added. U.S. activity mirrors Japan, panelists added.

While there's plenty of development work to be done, companies are already trying to devise marketing strategies. Drivers aren't clamoring for by-wire features, but they might like them once they have driven a vehicle. Reduced emissions and fuel consumption will be attractive features, as will the marketing push that this is jet aircraft technology. Winter noted that pilots originally felt that by-wire technology was taking some of the control functions away from them. But now, "they not only accept it, they request it," Winter said

- Terry Costlow

Thrive or Survive

Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick welcomes a capacity crowd to the Technology Theater.

Kwame Kilpatrick, Mayor of Detroit, made introductory remarks at the opening session of SAE 2003 World Congress, held in the new Technology Theatre. Quoting one of his predecessors, Coleman Young, he noted that when America gets a cold, Detroit gets pneumonia, illustrating how dependent the city is on the automotive manufacturing business. The mayor went on to point out some of the investments being made in technology to boost education and training and to help develop a new wave of automotive engineers.

Richard Schaum, Executive Vice President-Product Development and Quality for DaimlerChrysler, and Chairperson of SAE 2003, started his presentation with the thought that the SAE World Congress was the premier automotive engineering conference in the world; he encouraged everyone to take full advantage of the exhibition, technical paper sessions, and expert panels. He noted that all the auto companies were planning to thrive, and pointed to the additional capacity being added as evidence. The current price war is going to make the battle for sales even tougher, he said, and the highest value at lowest cost would succeed, with the ability to innovate key.

Schaum then proceeded to review some of the progress made in the auto industry since he began his career in 1966: hydrocarbon emissions reduced by 99% and nitrous oxide by 95%; fuel economy significantly improved for both cars and trucks; from 1975-2001 the number of fatalities per 100 million miles driven has dropped from 5.5 to 1.5 despite only 75% seatbelt usage in the U.S. Affordability of vehicles has also dropped from 30 weeks average pay to 20 weeks comparing 1991 to 2001, getting back to the level of the mid-70s.

Looking forward to 2010, Schaum had a number of predictions: government regulations would continue to grow; the piston engine and hydrocarbon fuel would still be dominant; electronics would continue to be the fastest-growing sector.

"Competition is as tough as it's ever been," Jim Padilla, Ford's President for North America, said.

Jim Padilla, President, North America and Executive Vice President Ford Motor Co, during his presentation explained that you must thrive in order to survive. Today's market is very different from even 10 years ago—now, all manufacturers seem to compete in all markets. And the pace of change is accelerating. 90% of future new vehicle features will be electrical- or software-based, so electrical architectures must become flexible and expandable.

Padilla noted that today's customers want many new features, but don't expect to pay a premium for them. For example, the take-up rate for stability control and side-airbag systems on the Focus is very low. Some customers will pay a premium for a clean powertrain, but how many will pay $3000-5000 extra for a hybrid engine, and will there be enough volume to make it feasible to produce? Maybe the question is not "What would Jesus drive?" but "What could Jesus afford?" Padilla said.

Diesel will continue to be popular in Europe, where the average installation rate has gone from 17 to 50% over the last 10 years. Diesel in Europe now gets similar fuel consumption to the hybrid with much lower initial cost, but is unlikely to make the same progress in the U.S.

Most important for the future, Padilla explained, are flexible manufacturing, recycling, and biodegradable materials. Managing fast-paced change within tight financial constraints is the key to success in the future, and SAE can contribute by continuing to lead professional development.

- David Alexander

The future of automotive A/C

The automotive industry is contemplating another shift in air-conditioning (A/C) technology, and R-744 (CO2) is one of the refrigerants under consideration. This issue was one of many discussed at yesterday's STS (Service Technicians Society) Conference-within-a-Conference.

According to Phil Trigiani, CEO of UView Ultraviolet Systems Inc., and a founding member of STS, there will be multiple A/C system types and refrigerants in the market, and thus, the service equipment and testing required to maintain those systems will also be varied. "One thing technicians need to understand is there's going to be more than one system out there, and it's going to depend on geography and model line," he said. "One manufacturer may have three different refrigerants in their vehicle lineup. So that's a scary thing as a technician."

The cost to the industry when switching from R-12 to R-134a was estimated at about $5 billion, said Trigiani, and that was a fairly easy transition because the systems have similar pressures, and they require similar equipment, diagnostic procedures, and tests. So why consider a new refrigerant at this time? The environment is one reason, said Trigiani. R-744 has zero-ozone-depletion characteristics and has minimal global-warming potential, he noted. New vehicle platforms—such as hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles—also are driving changes with A/C technology.

Alternatives to existing HFC (R-134a) systems include:

• Enhanced R-134a systems that increase efficiency using improved heat exchanger technology, minimizing refrigerant charge and the potential for leaks.
• Hydrocarbon-based systems such as propane or butane, which are good refrigerants but considered potentially dangerous in a mobile environment, said Trigiani.
• Secondary loop using hydrocarbon or HFC refrigerant in the engine bay, which is efficient, said Trigiani, but more expensive because it requires a liquid pump for glycol and a heat exchanger.
• R-152a—an HFC-based refrigerant that is commonly used as a keyboard cleaner—which is similar to R-134a in terms of pressures and material compatibility, but there are some flammability/safety concerns, Trigiani noted.
• R-744 (CO2) systems, which have the benefits noted above, but do have packaging issues ("Right now they are still too heavy," said Trigiani.)

In fuel cells and hybrids, Trigiani believes a hermetic system will be used, similar to that in refrigerators. It would involve welded tubing and could "be mounted to the body where there wouldn't be any flexibility. The big problem now is that we have all these hoses that have to be flexible. With a totally hermetically sealed system, like your refrigerator at home, hopefully you could get 10, 15, or even 20 years" of operation, he said.

Production of an R-744 system is expected to be launched in some new vehicle models beginning in 2007/2008, Trigiani stated. SAE and the Interior Climate Control Committee are currently updating and revising the SAE J639 - Mechanical Vapor Compression Refrigerant Systems standard to include R-744 and possibly R-152a. Completion is expected in the next year, he said. The new J639 will provide, among other things, minimum standards for refrigerant containment and safety, cautionary statements for technicians with regards to health and safety and venting, and prevention of cross contamination by using unique fittings for each refrigerant.

R-744 systems operate at "very high pressures compared to what we're used to," said Trigiani. Operating pressures of up to 13 MPa (1880 psi) on the high side are typical, with the maximum allowable on the high side being 17.6 MPa (2550 psi) and 13.2 MPa (1915 psi) on the low side.

With R-744, there will need to be unique fittings, couplings, and hoses, which are already in the draft stages, according to Trigiani. The system may include a pressure relief device to prevent accidental blow-off. Refrigerant sensing devices in the interior of the vehicle are also a possibility—for example, a sensor that will automatically roll the windows down if it detects any CO2.

The proposed leak rate at each connection point for R-744 is less than 1 g per year, Trigiani noted, adding that "it's going to be hard to find leaks" at that rate. Electronic leak detection devices are currently limited because CO2 is also a background gas in high concentrations. Ultraviolet dyes are under development and being tested, he said, and preliminary results are positive even with limited oil circulation. And new technology such as ultrasonic leak detection is a possibility. Depending on final component design, connection, and assembly, development of custom hand tools to service and repair R-744 systems may also be necessary.

- Ryan Gehm