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The effectiveness of ultraviolet (UV) disinfection is governed by the UV dose to which microorganisms are exposed. In treatment operations, all UV disinfection systems deliver a distribution of UV doses. The ability to accurately estimate the dose distribution delivered by an operating UV system is a critical aspect of its design. Moreover, the availability of tools to accurately predict the dose distribution for an existing UV system makes it possible to develop reliable, quantitative predictions of process performance in these systems. The dose distribution can be estimated by employing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and UV radiation intensity field modeling. UV dose-distribution data is then coupled with UV dose-response behavior for target microorganisms to yield an estimate of process performance.