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Journal Article

Design under Uncertainty using a Combination of Evidence Theory and a Bayesian Approach

2008-04-14
2008-01-0377
Early in the engineering design cycle, it is difficult to quantify product reliability due to insufficient data or information to model uncertainties. Probability theory can not be therefore, used. Design decisions are usually based on fuzzy information which is imprecise and incomplete. Various design methods such as Possibility-Based Design Optimization (PBDO) and Evidence-Based Design Optimization (EBDO) have been developed to systematically treat design with non-probabilistic uncertainties. In practical engineering applications, information regarding the uncertain variables and parameters may exist in the form of sample points, and uncertainties with sufficient and insufficient information may exist simultaneously. Most of the existing optimal design methods under uncertainty can not handle this form of incomplete information. They have to either discard some valuable information or postulate the existence of additional information.
Technical Paper

An Efficient Possibility-Based Design Optimization Method for a Combination of Interval and Random Variables

2007-04-16
2007-01-0553
Reliability-based design optimization accounts for variation. However, it assumes that statistical information is available in the form of fully defined probabilistic distributions. This is not true for a variety of engineering problems where uncertainty is usually given in terms of interval ranges. In this case, interval analysis or possibility theory can be used instead of probability theory. This paper shows how possibility theory can be used in design and presents a computationally efficient sequential optimization algorithm. The algorithm handles problems with only uncertain or a combination of random and uncertain design variables and parameters. It consists of a sequence of cycles composed of a deterministic design optimization followed by a set of worst-case reliability evaluation loops. A crank-slider mechanism example demonstrates the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed sequential algorithm.
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