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A theoretical math model was created to assess the net effect of aging populations versus evolving system designs from the standpoint of thoracic injury potential. The model was used to project the next twenty-five years of thoracic injuries in Canada. The choice of Canada was topical because rulemaking for CMVSS 208 has been proposed recently. The study was limited to properly-belted, front-outboard, adult occupants in 11-1 o'clock frontal crashes. Moreover, only AIS3+thoracic injury potential was considered. The research consisted of four steps. First, sub-models were developed and integrated. The sub-models were made for numerous real-world effects including population growth, crash involvement, fleet penetration of various systems (via system introduction, vehicle production, and vehicle attrition), and attendant injury risk estimation. Second, existing NASS data were used to estimate the number of AIS3+ chest-injured drivers in Canada in 2001.

A theoretical, mathematical, risk assessment procedure was developed to estimate the fraction of drivers that incurred head and thoracic AIS3+ injuries in full-engagement frontal crashes. The estimates were based on numerical simulations of various real-world events, including variations of crash severity, crash speed, level of restraint, and occupant size. The procedure consisted of four steps: (1) conduct the simulations of the numerous events, (2) use biomechanical equations to transform the occupant responses into AIS3+ risks for each event, (3) weight the maximum risk for each event by its real-world event frequency, and (4) sum the weighted risks. To validate the risk assessment procedure, numerous steps were taken. First, a passenger car was identified to represent average field performance.

Various frontal impact risk curves were assessed for the next-generation USA New Car Assessment Program (NCAP). Specifically, the “NCAP risk curves” — those chosen by the government for the 2011 model year NCAP — as well as other published risk curves were used to estimate theoretically the injury rates of belted drivers in real-world frontal crashes. Two perspectives were considered: (1) a “point” estimate of NCAP-type events from NCAP fleet tests, and (2) an “aggregate” estimate of 0 ≤ ΔV ≤ 56 km/h crashes from a modeled theoretical vehicle whose NCAP performance approximated the average of the studied fleet. Four body regions were considered: head, neck, chest, and knee-thigh-hip complex (KTH). The curve-based injury rates for each body region were compared with those of real-world frontal crashes involving properly-belted adult drivers in airbag-equipped light passenger vehicles. The assessment yielded mixed results.

Injury distributions of belted drivers in 1998-2013 model-year light passenger cars/trucks in various types of real-world frontal crashes were studied. The basis of the analysis was field data from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS). The studied variables were injury severity (n=2), occupant body region (n=8), and crash type (n=8). The two levels of injury were moderate-to-fatal (AIS2+) and serious-to-fatal (AIS3+). The eight body regions ranged from head/face to foot/ankle. The eight crash types were based on a previously-published Frontal Impact Taxonomy (FIT). The results of the study provided insights into the field data. For example, for the AIS2+ upper-body-injured drivers, (a) head and chest injury yield similar contributions, and (b) about 60% of all the upper-body injured drivers were from the combination of the Full-Engagement and Offset crashes.

Lower-body injury data for adults in real-world frontal impacts in the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) were collected, analyzed, and modeled via statistical methods. Two levels of lower-body injury were considered: maximum serious-to-fatal (MAIS3+) and moderate-to-fatal (MAIS2+). In the analysis, we observed that a substantial fraction of all lower-body injured occupants had no recorded floor/toe pan intrusion: 47% of all MAIS3+ injured occupants; 69% of all MAIS2+ injured occupants. In the statistical modeling, we developed binary logistic regression models to fit the MAIS3+ and MAIS 2+ injury data. The statistically significant variables (p ≤ 0.05) were the speed change of the crash, postcrash floor/toe pan intrusion, level of restraint, occupant age, and occupant gender.

A new, AIS3+ thoracic risk equation based on chest deflection was derived and assessed for drivers subjected to concentrated (belt-like) loading. The new risk equation was derived from analysis of an existing database of post mortem human subjects in controlled, laboratory sled tests. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed on a subset of the data, namely, 25th-75th percentile men (by weight) from 36-65 years old whose thoracic deformation patterns were due to concentrated (belt-like) loading. Other subsets of data had insufficient size to conduct the analysis. The resulting thoracic risk equation was adjusted to predict the AIS3+ thoracic risks for average-aged occupants in frontal crashes (i.e., 30 years old). Biomechanical scaling was used to derive the corresponding relationships for the small female and large male dummies. The new thoracic risk equations and three other sets of existing equations were evaluated as predictors of real-world crash outcomes.

Do older light trucks, often with second (and subsequent) owners, present a higher risk to either their own occupants or to other road users? And is the safety record for newer trucks better or worse than the record for their older counterparts? To answer these questions, fatalities in crashes involving at least one light truck were examined using the Fatal Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Fatality rates for both occupants of the light truck and for other road users (occupants of other motor vehicles, pedestrians, etc.) in these crashes were computed, based both on the number of registered vehicles and on the vehicle miles of travel. Two trends in these fatality rates are observed. First, as light trucks age, a consistent decline is found in risk both to their own occupants and to other road users. Second, a distinct decrease is found in road user risk for newer light trucks compared to older light trucks when they were new, both for their own occupants and for other road users.

The restraint usage and seating location of children in crash-involved passenger cars were estimated using National Accident Sampling System (NASS) data. Whether drivers of cars were restrained or not appears to play a dominant role in whether child passengers were likewise restrained or not. Most infant passengers were restrained irrespective of driver restraint usage. In contrast, the restraint usage of older children was dramatically influenced by the driver's restraint usage. If the driver was restrained, restraint usage by children dropped only slightly. If, however, the driver was unrestrained, restraint usage by children dropped by an order of magnitude This precipitous drop in restraint usage appears to have occurred by the age of five or six. Thereafter, the restraint usage of children riding with unrestrained drivers remained low and relatively constant.