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This paper quantifies the potential of electric propulsion systems to reduce petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2030 U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. The propulsion systems under consideration include gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), fuel-cell hybrid vehicles (FCVs), and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). The performance and cost of key enabling technologies were extrapolated over a 25-30 year time horizon. These results were integrated with software simulations to model vehicle performance and tank-to-wheel energy consumption. Well-to-wheel energy and GHG emissions of future vehicle technologies were estimated by integrating the vehicle technology evaluation with assessments of different fuel pathways. The results show that, if vehicle size and performance remain constant at present-day levels, these electric propulsion systems can reduce or eliminate the transport sector's reliance on petroleum.

Transport policy research seeks to predict and substantially reduce the future transport-related greenhouse gas emissions and fuel consumption to prevent negative climate change impacts and protect the environment. However, making such predictions is made difficult due to the uncertainties associated with the anticipated developments of the technology and fuel situation in road transportation, which determine the total fuel use and emissions of the future light-duty vehicle fleet. These include uncertainties in the performance of future vehicles, fuels' emissions, availability of alternative fuels, demand, as well as market deployment of new technologies and fuels. This paper develops a methodology that quantifies the impact of uncertainty on the U.S. transport-related fuel use and emissions by introducing a stochastic technology and fleet assessment model that takes detailed technological and demand inputs.

A methodology is presented with which aggregate emissions from the in-use automobile population can be calculated for any given calendar year. The data base needed for such a calculation is discussed, and areas in which further research is needed are pointed out. Results of a series of calculations are then presented showing the effect on aggregate emissions of various control strategies. The effects of an inspection/maintenance and retrofit program, different vehicle population growth rates, catalyst deterioration in use, and various schedules of new car emission standards for post-1975 vehicles are presented. It is shown that the rate at which old, higher-polluting vehicles are retired from the in-use vehicle population is the major factor in determining the rate at which aggregate emissions will decrease in the 1970s, with the precise level of post-1975 standards only becoming important in the 1980s.

Currently, states that are out of compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards must, according to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), develop and implement control strategies that demonstrate specific degrees of reduction in emissions-with the degree of reduction depending upon the severity of the problem. One tool that has been developed to aid regulators in both deciding an appropriate course of action and to demonstrate the desired reductions in mobile emissions is EPA's Mobile 5a emission estimation model. In our study, Mobile 5a has been used to examine the effects of regulatory strategies, as applied to the Northeast United States, on vehicle emissions under worst-case ozone-forming conditions.

This paper provides an overview of spark-ignition engine unburned hydrocarbon emissions mechanisms, and then uses this framework to relate measured engine-out hydrocarbon emission levels to the processes within the engine from which they result. Typically, spark-ignition engine-out HC levels are 1.5 to 2 percent of the gasoline fuel flow into the engine; about half this amount is unburned fuel and half is partially reacted fuel components. The different mechanisms by which hydrocarbons in the gasoline escape burning during the normal engine combustion process are described and approximately quantified. The in-cylinder oxidation of these HC during the expansion and exhaust processes, the fraction which exit the cylinder, and the fraction oxidized in the exhaust port and manifold are also estimated.

An analysis method for characterizing fuel behavior during spark-ignition engine starting has been developed and applied to several sets of start-up data. The data sets were acquired from modern production vehicles during room temperature engine start-up. Two different engines, two control schemes, and two engine temperatures (cold and hot) were investigated. A cycle-by-cycle mass balance for the fuel was used to compare the amount of fuel injected with the amount burned or exhausted as unburned hydrocarbons. The difference was measured as “fuel unaccounted for”. The calculation for the amount of fuel burned used an energy release analysis of the cylinder pressure data. The results include an overview of starting behavior and a fuel accounting for each data set Overall, starting occurred quickly with combustion quality, manifold pressure, and engine speed beginning to stabilize by the seventh cycle, on average.

The direct injection spark-ignition engine is the only internal combustion engine with the potential to equal the efficiency of the diesel and to tolerate a wide range of fuel types and fuel qualities without deterioration of performance. However, this engine has low combustion efficiency and excessive hydrocarbon emissions when operating at light load. In this paper, potential sources of hydrocarbon emissions during light load operation are postulated and analyzed. The placement of fuel away from the primary combustion process in conjunction with a lack of secondary burnup are isolated as important hydrocarbon emissions mechanisms. Analyses show that increasing cylinder gas temperatures can improve secondary burnup of fuel which would reduce hydrocarbon emissions. Practical means to achieve this include higher compression ratio and use of ceramic parts in the combustion chamber.

This paper explores the benefits that would be achieved if gasoline marketers produced and offered a higher-octane gasoline to the U.S. consumer market as the standard grade. By raising octane, engine knock constraints are reduced, so that new spark-ignition engines can be designed with higher compression ratios and boost levels. Consequently, engine and vehicle efficiencies are improved thus reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet over time. The main objective of this paper is to quantify the reduction in fuel consumption and GHG emissions that would result for a given increase in octane number if new vehicles designed to use this higher-octane gasoline are deployed. GT-Power simulations and a literature review are used to determine the relative brake efficiency gain that is possible as compression ratio is increased.

Passenger cars in the United States continue to incorporate increasing levels of technology and features. However, deployment of technology requires substantial development and time in the automotive sector. Prior analyses indicate that deployment of technology in the automotive sector can be described by a logistic function. These analyses refer to maximum annual growth rates as high as 17% and with developmental times of 10-15 years. However, these technologies vary widely in complexity and function, and span decades in their implementation. This work applies regression with a logistic form to a wide variety of automotive features and technologies and, using secondary regression, identifies broader trends across categories and over time.

A dynamometer-mounted four-cylinder Saturn engine was used to accumulate combustion chamber deposits (CCD), using an additized fuel. During each deposit accumulation test, the HC emissions were continuously measured. The deposit thickness at the center of the piston was measured at the beginning of each day. After the 50 and 35-hour tests, HC emissions were measured with isooctane, benzene, toluene, and xylene, with the deposited engine, and again after the deposits had been cleaned from the engine. The HC emissions showed a rapid rise in the first 10 to 15 hours and stabilization after about 25 hours of deposit accumulation. The HC increase due to CCD accumulation accounted for 10 to 20% of the total engine-out HC emissions from the deposit build-up fuel and 10 to 30% from benzene, isooctane, toluene, and xylene, making CCDs a significant HC emissions source from this engine. The HC emissions stabilized long before the deposit thickness.

An experimental study was conducted on a direct-injection stratified-charge (DISC) engine incorporating a combustion process similar to the Texaco Controlled Combustion System and operated with gasoline. Analysis of the injected fuel flow and the heat release showed that the combustion process was characterized by three distinct phases: fuel injection and distribution around the piston bowl, flame propagation through the stratified fuel-air mixture, and mixing-controlled burn-out with the heat-release rate proportional to the amount of unburned fuel in the combustion chamber. This characterization was consistent with previous visualization studies conducted on rapid-compression machines with similar configurations. Experiments with varied injection timing, spark plug location, and spark timing showed that the combustion timing relative to injection was critical to the hydrocarbon emissions from the engine.

This paper assesses the potential improvement of automotive powertrain technologies 25 years into the future. The powertrain types assessed include naturally-aspirated gasoline engines, turbocharged gasoline engines, diesel engines, gasoline-electric hybrids, and various advanced transmissions. Advancements in aerodynamics, vehicle weight reduction and tire rolling friction are also taken into account. The objective of the comparison is the potential of anticipated improvements in these powertrain technologies for reducing petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions at the same level of performance as current vehicles in the U.S.A. The fuel consumption and performance of future vehicles was estimated using a combination of scaling laws and detailed vehicle simulations. The results indicate that there is significant potential for reduction of fuel consumption for all the powertrains examined.

The purpose of this work was to develop an understanding of how liquid fuel transported into the cylinder of a port-fuel-injected gasoline-fueled SI engine contributes to hydrocarbon (HC) emissions. To simulate the liquid fuel flow from the valve seat region into the cylinder, a specially designed fuel probe was developed and used to inject controlled amounts of liquid fuel onto the port wall close to the valve seat. By operating the engine on pre-vaporized Indolene, and injecting a small amount of liquid fuel close to the valve seat while the intake valve was open, we examined the effects of liquid fuel entering the cylinder at different circumferential locations around the valve seat. Similar experiments were also carried out with closed valve injection of liquid fuel at the valve seat to assess the effects of residual blowback, and of evaporation from the intake valve and port surfaces.

This paper reviews the major changes that have occurred in spark-ignition engine design and operation over the last two decades. The automobile air pollution problem, automobile emission standards, and automobile fuel economy standards -- the factors which have and are producing these changes -- are briefly described. The major components in spark-ignition engine emission control systems are outlined, and advances in carburetion, fuel injection, ignition systems, spark retard and exhaust gas recycle strategies, and catalytic converters, are reviewed. The impact of these emission controls on vehicle fuel economy is assessed. The potential for fuel economy improvements in conventional spark-ignition engines is examined, and promising developments in improved engine and vehicle matching are outlined.

A computer simulation of the four-stroke spark-ignition engine cycle has been developed for studies of the effects of variations in engine design and operating parameters on engine performance, efficiency and NO emissions. The simulation computes the flows into and out of the engine, calculates the changes in thermodynamic properties and composition of the unburned and burned gas mixtures within the cylinder through the engine cycle due to work, heat and mass transfers, and follows the kinetics of NO formation and decomposition in the burned gas. The combustion process is specified as an input to the program through use of a normalized rate of mass burning profile. From this information, the simulation computes engine power, fuel consumption and NO emissions. Predictions made with the simulation have been compared with data from a single-cylinder CFR engine over a range of equivalence ratios, spark-timings and compression ratios.

A model has been developed for a divided-chamber automotive diesel engine which describes the intake, compression, combustion and expansion, and exhaust processes in sufficient detail to permit calculations of pressure, fuel-air ratio distribution, heat release distribution, NO formation, soot mass loading, and soot oxidation processes. The novel feature of this model is the use of a stochastic mixing approach during the combustion and expansion processes to describe the nonuniform fuel-air ratio distribution within the engine. In this approach, the fuel-air ratio distribution during the combustion and emissions formation processes can be followed as it evolves with time. Experimental data generated on a single-cylinder divided-chamber diesel engine were used to verify the accuracy of the model predictions. Agreement between experimental data and predicted values of engine performance and NOx emissions levels was good.

An experimental study was performed in a firing SI engine at conditions representative of the warmup phase of operation in which liquid gasoline films were established at various locations in the combustion chamber and the resulting impact on hydrocarbon emissions was assessed. Unique about this study was that it combined, in a firing engine environment, direct visual observation of the liquid fuel films, measurements of the temperatures these films were subjected to, and the determination from gas analyzers of burned and unburned fuel quantities exiting the combustion chamber - all with cycle-level resolution or better. A means of deducing the exhaust hydrocarbon emissions that were due to the liquid fuel films in the combustion chamber was developed. An increase in exhaust hydrocarbon emissions was always observed with liquid fuel films present in the combustion chamber.

An experimental study was performed to investigate the effects of various intake charge motion control valves (CMCVs) on mixture preparation, combustion, and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions during the cold start-up process of a port fuel injected spark ignition (SI) engine. Different charge motions were produced by three differently shaped plates in the CMCV device, each of which blocked off 75% of the engine's intake ports. Time-resolved HC, CO and CO2 concentrations were measured at the exhaust port exit in order to achieve cycle-by-cycle engine-out HC mass and in-cylinder air/fuel ratio. Combustion characteristics were examined through a thermodynamic burn rate analysis. Cold-fluid steady state experiments were carried out with the CMCV open and closed. Enhanced charge motion with the CMCV closed was found to shorten the combustion duration, which caused the location of 50% mass fraction burned (MFB) to occur up to 5° CA earlier for the same spark timing.

Dilute operation of a SI engine offers attractive performance incentives. Lowered combustion temperatures and changes in the mixture composition inhibit NOx formation and increase the effective value of the ratio of burned gas specific heats, increasing gross indicated efficiency. Additionally, reduced intake manifold throttling minimizes pumping losses, leading to higher net indicated efficiency. These benefits are offset by the reduced combustion speed of dilute fuel-air mixtures, which can lead to high cycle-to-cycle variation and unacceptable engine behavior characteristics. Hydrogen enhancement can suppress the undesirable consequences of dilute operation by accelerating the combustion process, thereby extending the dilution limit. Hydrogen would be produced on-board the vehicle with a gasoline reforming device such as the plasmatron. High dilution at higher loads would necessitate boosting to meet the appropriate engine specific power requirements.

Experiments to study the effects of oxygenated fuels on emissions and combustion were performed in a single-cylinder direct-injection (DI) diesel engine. A matrix of oxygen containing fuels assessed the impact of weight percent oxygen content, oxygenate chemical structure, and oxygenate volatility on emissions. Several oxygenated chemicals were blended with an ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel and evaluated at an equivalent energy release and combustion phasing. Additional experiments investigated the effectiveness of oxygenated fuels at a different engine load, a matched fuel/air equivalence ratio, and blended with a diesel fuel from the Fischer-Tropsch process. Interactions between emissions and critical engine operating parameters were also quantified. A scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) was used to evaluate particle size distributions, in addition to particulate matter (PM) filter and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) measurements.