Development of a Fuzzy Expert System for Aviation Risk Modelling

Document Number: 2005-01-3357

Date Published: October 2005

Author(s):
Michael Hadjimichael - US Naval Research Laboratory
John McCarthy - Aviation Weather Associates

Abstract:
The Flight Operations Risk Assessment System (FORAS) is a risk modelling methodology which represents risk factors and their interrelationships as a fuzzy expert system. The FORAS process systematizes the process of eliciting human expertise, provides for a natural representation of the knowledge in an expert system, and automates the process of risk assessment.

There are many challenges in developing such a system. These include the selection of relevant subject matter experts, the combination and reconciliation of multiple, subjective knowledge bases, and the representation of knowledge in a model easily expressed, evaluated, and revised. This paper will present the technical background of the FORAS methodology, and demonstrate its implementation, as performed on its first operational partner, EVA Airways, of Taiwan.

File Size: 136K
Product Status: In Stock

Purchase more technical papers and save! With TechSelect, you decide what SAE Technical Papers you need, when you need them, and how much you want to pay. Learn more >