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Electrified Vehicle Penetration Scenarios in Europe: Economic and Environmental Impacts

What will the passenger car fleet look like over the next two decades? As most expected, affordability and convenience are the major drivers of new vehicle technology penetration into the market. Within this scope, vehicle electrification strategy to limit oil dependence and meet the European targets for CO2 emissions should be cost-effective and convenient to the buyer.

This paper will focus first, through different economic models, on the penetration of passenger electrified vehicles (Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles PHVs and Electric Vehicles EVs) in Europe (EU15: 15 European Union member countries) up to 2030. Economic models are based on real world use behaviors and driving patterns in order to compute fuel and energy consumption and to estimate total cost of the vehicle including incentives. The economic models use household wages in order to later make conclusions on vehicle technology market shares by vehicle classes. Later, the study investigates how user behavior, fuel cost and electric power prices would impact the electrified vehicle penetration of the car fleet. Furthermore, the impact of electrified vehicle fleet penetration on reduction of CO2 emissions and on electricity demand is assessed.

Elias Zgheib, Mines Paristech

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