This paper describes research to analyze widespread fatigue damage in lap joints. The particular objective is to determine when large numbers of small cracks could degrade the joint strength to an unacceptable level. A deterministic model is described to compute fatigue crack growth and residual strength of riveted panels that contain multiple cracks. Fatigue crack growth tests conducted to evaluate the predictive model are summarized, and indicate good agreement between experimental and numerical results. Monte Carlo simulations are then performed to determine the influence of statistical variability on various analysis parameters.