SENSITIVITY/UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF AUTOMOTIVE HEAT EXCHANGER DESIGNS 2001-01-1013

This paper addresses the uncertainties in heat exchanger design and their effect on the expected heat exchanger performance. Based on the work presented in this paper, it will be possible to determine the confidence level that a heat exchanger will meet its design goals, considering the uncertainties in its design parameters. It will also be possible to determine the most influential design parameters. In general, nominal or mean values of design parameters are used in design or rating calculations without consideration to the uncertainties inherent in them. Therefore, an estimate of the overall design uncertainty should be evaluated. Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) is used to determine the overall design uncertainty, and evaluate design sensitivity to each of the design parameters. The probability or confidence level that a heat exchanger can meet a certain design target can be determined. Therefore, it will be possible to determine the additional heat transfer area that is required to achieve a desired performance.