Forecasting the Future of European Automotive Retailing: A Foresight Vehicle Research Project 2002-01-0180

This paper presents the results of a Foresight Vehicle funded research project addressing the future of Automotive Retailing. The aims of the research are to develop a series of global scenarios of what car dealerships will be like in 2010 and identify the implications for the global Automotive Retail Environment (A.R.E.). The research methodology utilized is the Delphi technique: a judgmental forecasting technique that obtains the opinions of experts via a number of rounds of data collection.

The results identify three initial scenarios: Bricks and ‘Clicks’, Experience Centers, and Virtual Reality with no one scenario being ideal. In reality, various combinations of the three will be used to develop a very different dealership offering. So whilst dealers are a critical element of the automotive retailing sector and will remain an integral part of the transaction process, the findings suggest that there will be a fundamental reconfiguration in terms of both number and style of dealerships.