Probabilistic Approach to Component Condition Assessment, Remaining Life Prediction and Maintenance Engineering 2003-01-1216

The paper illustrates how probabilistic physics-based models can be used for risk-based condition assessment and life prediction of aircraft jet engines, including the uncertainties in maintenance activities. Although this paper focuses on engines, the proposed approach can be extended elsewhere. Probabilistic modeling includes all significant uncertainties that affect engine reliability, such as flight conditions, loading history, manufacturing deviations, material properties and behavior under random loading and maintenance activities. Maintenance uncertainties include those related to NDI techniques and operator's skills. The paper shows the uncertainty effects of different NDI techniques, maintenance intervals, operator skills, etc. on the engine reliability. Unscheduled maintenance rates are computed for given a maintenance schedule.