Characterizations of Deployment Rates in Automotive Technology

Stephen Zoepf; John B. Heywood

doi:10.4271/2012-01-1057

Passenger cars in the United States continue to incorporate increasing levels of technology and features. However, deployment of technology requires substantial development and time in the automotive sector.

Prior analyses indicate that deployment of technology in the automotive sector can be described by a logistic function. These analyses refer to maximum annual growth rates as high as 17% and with developmental times of 10-15 years. However, these technologies vary widely in complexity and function, and span decades in their implementation.

This work applies regression with a logistic form to a wide variety of automotive features and technologies and, using secondary regression, identifies broader trends across categories and over time. Developmental time, measured as the time to reach maximum growth, has declined exponentially and now stands at approximately ten years, although individual manufacturers have demonstrated the ability to implement technology more quickly than industry averages. While required safety features and emissions control technologies achieve faster deployment rates than optional features, there is not a clear casual relationship between an early requirement and rapid growth rate.

The ability to develop and deploy technology quickly will be critical to meeting future fuel economy regulations. Technology deployment levels modeled in 2017 CAFE regulations fall broadly within the range of historical norms, but several specific technologies exceed historical application rates for non-safety applications.

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Characterizations of Deployment Rates in Automotive Technology 2012-01-1057

SAE MOBILUS