Long-Term Evolution of Straight Crossing Path Crash Occurrence in the U.S. Fleet: The Potential of Intersection Active Safety Systems 2019-01-1023
Intersection collisions currently account for approximately one-fifth of all crashes and one-sixth of all fatal crashes in the United States. One promising method of mitigating these crashes and fatalities is to include Intersection Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (I-ADAS) with vehicles. When a crash is imminent, the I-ADAS system can either warn the driver or apply automated braking. The safety benefit of I-ADAS has been previously examined based on real-world cases drawn from the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVCCS). However, these studies made the idealized assumption of full installation in all vehicles of a future fleet. The objective of this work was to predict the reduction in Straight Crossing Path (SCP) crashes due to I-ADAS systems in the United States over time. This paper presents a market penetration model based on technology cost, fleet age, and number of crashes. The proportion of new vehicles with I-ADAS was simulated to increase each year based on consumer willingness to pay (WTP) and a simulated drop in technology prices. After these new vehicles were introduced into the fleet, their lifetime was simulated using United States fleet age data. The number of potential SCP conflicts was modeled as increasing year over year due to a predicted increase in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) each year and a predicted increase in older drivers in the future. Finally, the combined effect of these changes was used to predict the number of SCP crashes each year from 2019 to 2045.