Prediction of Weather Impacts on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Capacity 2019-01-1350
The paper describes a data driven model for predicting airport capacity with a look-ahead time 2-8 hour suitable for air traffic flow management by explicitly investigating the impact of convictive weather on airport arrival meter fix throughput. Estimation of the arrival airport capacity under arrival meter fix flow constraints due to severe weather is an important part of Air Traffic Management (ATM). Airport arrival capacities may be reduced by cause of one or more of airport arrival meter fixes partially or completely blocked by the convective weather. When the predicted airport arrival demands exceed the predicted available airport’s arrival capacity for a sustained period, Ground Delay Program (GDP) operations will be implemented by ATM. The serious demand and capacity imbalances most occur when the airport capacity is severely degraded due to either bad airport terminal surface weather or inclement convictive weather around airport arrival fixes. A model that predicts the weather-impacted airport arrival meter fix throughput may help air traffic management planning GDP operations more efficiently. This paper describes the characteristics of an air traffic flows across arrival meter fixes at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). Sector forecast coverages are used for the envision of weather impact on airport arrival meter fix flow, and their validation is accomplished using Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) 0-2 hour and Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) 4-8 hour look-ahead forecast data for the period of April-September in 2014. Furthermore, regression tree ensemble learning of random forests approach for translating sector forecast coverage model to EWR arrival meter fix throughput is examined. The results of the study suggest that ATM operation on meter fix flow controlling and GDP planning may be benefit by the airport arrival meter capacity prediction models to estimate the inclement weather impacts.