Harmonization and Verification of Three National European Icing Forecast Models using Pilot Reports 2019-01-1952
The Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research (SESAR) program aims to modernize and harmonize the European airspace, which currently has a strongly fragmented character. Besides turbulence and convection, in-flight icing is part of SESAR and can be seen as one of the most important meteorological phenomena which may lead to hazardous flight conditions for aircraft. In order to harmonize the icing forecast over Europe, forecast model data from Deutscher Wetterdienst, Météo-France, and Met Office are combined to produce one single harmonized product. The aim of this study is to analyze several methods with different complexities for the model combination. The best approach will later be used in the operational forecast system to provide users with the harmonized European icing product.
As verification data, pilot reports (PIREPs) are used which provide information about hazardous weather and are currently the only direct regular measure of in-flight icing events. First results show the differences in the single model forecasts, and hence the necessity to harmonize them. Furthermore, the combined output using the average of the three models as a rather simple approach fits quite well to the PIREPs of the selected situation.
Several methods for combining the models will be compared by applying POD (probability of detection) and FAR (false alarm rate) scores. The best method will be used for the final harmonized product. Finally the forecast performance of this harmonized product will be evaluated against that of each individual model to identify whether it can achieve an improvement.
Christoph Knigge, Katie Brown, Christine LeBot, Maren Gehlen-Zeller
German Weather Service, Met Office, Meteo-France
International Conference on Icing of Aircraft, Engines, and Structures