Browse Publications Technical Papers 2020-01-0729

Vehicle Velocity Prediction Using Artificial Neural Network and Effect of Real World Signals on Prediction Window. 2020-01-0729

Prediction of vehicle velocity is important since it can realize improvements in the fuel economy/energy efficiency, drivability and safety. Velocity prediction has been addressed in many publications. Several references considered deterministic and stochastic approaches such as Markov chain, autoregressive models, and artificial neural networks. There are numerous new sensor and signal technologies like vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication that can be used to obtain inclusive datasets. Using these inclusive datasets of sensors in deep neural networks, high accuracy velocity predictions can be achieved. This research builds upon previous findings that Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep neural networks provide the highest velocity prediction fidelity. We developed LSTM deep neural network which uses different groups of datasets collected in Fort Collins. Synchronous data was gathered using a test vehicle equipped with sensors to measure ego vehicle position and velocity, ADAS-derived near-neighbor relative position and velocity, and infrastructure-level transit time and signal phase and timing. Effect of different group of datasets on forward velocity prediction window of 10, 15, 20 and 30 seconds is studied. Developed algorithm is tested on NVIDIA DRIVE PX2. This research shows that the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of future velocity prediction is with a fully inclusive dataset in 10 and 15 second velocity prediction windows. It was observed that, GPS data, current vehicle velocity data, and vehicle-to-infrastructure data were the most influential parameters for prediction accuracy. Additionally, we have demonstrated that the LSTM neural network used for velocity prediction can be implemented in real time using an NVIDIA DRIVE PX2 on board a vehicle. Integration of velocity prediction into Fuel economy strategies and autonomous vehicle technology have potential to improve Fuel Economy and safety. Future work involves demonstrating these two use cases in a physical vehicle using NVIDIA DRIVE PX2.


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