Browse Publications Technical Papers 2020-01-0974
2020-04-14

History and Prospects for Electric Vehicles & Electric Bikes: Pathway to Sustainable Carbon Free Energy & Transportation 2020-01-0974

The Electric Transportation Revolution (ETR) began with the General Motors EV1 project and Yamaha Japan Pedal Assist System (PAS) electric bike in the 1990s. ETR historical development will be presented. Worldwide EB sales are 40 million with 300 million on the road, China mainly. EV sales may, or may not, follow the EB experience. Mandates and government incentives influence the EV market, customer demand drives EB growth. The EPA CO2 endangerment finding is forcing the auto industry to invest in EVs to help limit Man Made Carbon Dioxide Climate Change (MMCDCC), which is based on theoretical computer models that calculate global temperature. Measured temperature data used to validate these models has been challenged and so reported. Historical climatology data shows that Natural Climate Change, NCC, is more likely the CC cause. Known periodic variations of sun’s orbit changes solar radiance and causes NCC. Around 550 million years ago CO2 level was 7,000ppm, and continuously changed to today’s 400ppm. Mankind survived the Little Ice Age of 1400-1750 and extreme drought of the 1930s. More CO2 in the atmosphere produces more plant growth, thus more food, a positive benefit for mankind worldwide well documented, thus CO2 is a beneficial gas. Some scientists predict a cooling period this century from a forthcoming solar radiance minimum. We propose a long term pathway to eliminate CO2 as an issue for energy and transportation. Using fossil fuels will naturally deplete them perhaps in 100 or 200 years. During this period, transition to nuclear power and hydrogen as the energy sources for electricity and transportation. Nuclear uranium and thorium fuels will have a longer lifetime of use, many hundreds of years, perhaps thousands with efficient reprocessing to recover unused nuclear fuel and reduce nuclear waste. Using nuclear electricity to produce hydrogen from electrolysis of water will provide hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles. Eliminating all fossil fuel usage eliminates affordable electricity and vehicle fuel which will disadvantage billions of people around the globe. The humanitarian thing to do is continue fossil fuel use for affordable heat in cooler winters and cooling in warmer summers which is occurring in some regions of the world. This all is likely NCC as it has been for hundreds of millions of years on planet earth. Full disclosure: FEJ has been a student of CC since 1970 when we studied global cooling at GM Research Labs as soot from cars was thought to lead to global cooling. The issue went away when GM invented the catalytic converter requiring unleaded gas, which produces no soot.

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