History and Prospects for Electric Vehicles & Electric
Bikes: Pathway to Sustainable Carbon Free Energy &
The Electric Transportation Revolution (ETR) began with the General Motors EV1
project and Yamaha Japan Pedal Assist System (PAS) electric bike in the 1990s. ETR
historical development will be presented. Worldwide EB sales are 40 million with 300
million on the road, China mainly. EV sales may, or may not, follow the EB experience.
Mandates and government incentives influence the EV market, customer demand
drives EB growth. The EPA CO2 endangerment finding is forcing the auto industry to
invest in EVs to help limit Man Made Carbon Dioxide Climate Change (MMCDCC),
which is based on theoretical computer models that calculate global temperature.
Measured temperature data used to validate these models has been challenged and so
reported. Historical climatology data shows that Natural Climate Change, NCC, is more
likely the CC cause. Known periodic variations of sun’s orbit changes solar radiance
and causes NCC. Around 550 million years ago CO2 level was 7,000ppm, and
continuously changed to today’s 400ppm. Mankind survived the Little Ice Age of
1400-1750 and extreme drought of the 1930s. More CO2 in the atmosphere produces
more plant growth, thus more food, a positive benefit for mankind worldwide well
documented, thus CO2 is a beneficial gas. Some scientists predict a cooling period this
century from a forthcoming solar radiance minimum. We propose a long term pathway
to eliminate CO2 as an issue for energy and transportation. Using fossil fuels will
naturally deplete them perhaps in 100 or 200 years. During this period, transition to
nuclear power and hydrogen as the energy sources for electricity and transportation.
Nuclear uranium and thorium fuels will have a longer lifetime of use, many hundreds of
years, perhaps thousands with efficient reprocessing to recover unused nuclear fuel and
reduce nuclear waste. Using nuclear electricity to produce hydrogen from electrolysis of
water will provide hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles. Eliminating all fossil fuel usage
eliminates affordable electricity and vehicle fuel which will disadvantage billions of
people around the globe. The humanitarian thing to do is continue fossil fuel use for
affordable heat in cooler winters and cooling in warmer summers which is occurring in
some regions of the world. This all is likely NCC as it has been for hundreds of millions
of years on planet earth.
Full disclosure: FEJ has been a student of CC since 1970 when we studied global
cooling at GM Research Labs as soot from cars was thought to lead to global cooling.
The issue went away when GM invented the catalytic converter requiring unleaded gas,
which produces no soot.