Probabilistic Analysis of Transport Induced Emissions in Melbourne City Roads 2023-01-0890

Because of the negative impacts of pollutions on us and our surroundings, it is important to measure the magnitude of emissions in metropolitan areas where the emission concentrations are highest. The Mesoscale approach was used for probabilistic emission inventory. The traffic volume data for each road link were required and collected from the Victoria state road traffic authority for further calculation for different Euro standards in different vehicle categories. The pollutants studied in this paper are nitrogen oxides (NO_X), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter (PM), as transportation-induced emissions constitute the principal source of city pollution. This paper examined the deterministic modelling and stochastic modelling approaches for estimating on-road emissions. The Monte Carlo simulation approach was applied for stochastic modelling. Estimated emissions were calculated using a deterministic approach for various road links, which were 79,000 g/km Carbon Monoxide (CO) for light private vehicles for a particular road link, but when the emissions for the same link were calculated using stochastic modelling, the emission estimated were around 82,000 g/km Carbon Monoxide (CO). This paper also analyzed different scenarios and future scenarios. When a 21% growth (in the year 2030) in vehicle registration is expected, considering the current growth trend, a 17% increase in CO emission is estimated in all vehicle categories. Different scenarios were analyzed assuming 50% of euro 3 vehicles were replaced by euro 5 (by the year 2020), then there would be a 34% reduction in CO emission for the same road link, which is 31,191 g/km less.