An Analytical Method for Prediction of High Altitude Total Water Exposure for In-Service Long Range Aircraft 2023-01-1435

To support an industry wide response to an EASA proposed Special Condition regarding the threat of in-flight supercooled liquid water icing conditions at altitudes above FL300, Boeing 777 fleet data were used to estimate the frequency and severity of such icing occurrences. The data were from the calendar year 2019 and included ~ 950,000 airline revenue flights from around the world by multiple operators. The unique architecture of the Primary Ice Detection System (PIDS) on that model, in addition to robust meteorological data that was able to be correlated, afforded an opportunity to conservatively estimate the Total Water Exposure (TWE) and thus the Liquid Water Content (LWC) of the icing encounters captured at FL295 and above. This paper will outline the key methods used and present the findings.