1963-01-01

NEW CONCEPTS IN THE PREDICTION OF MECHANICAL AND STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY 630532

This paper presents the concepts and methodology for three new reliability prediction techniques that have been under investigation by the Reliability Department of the Avco Research and Advanced Development Division. The first is based on the generation of functional failure rates as the basic module for prediction. The application of these failure rates is then similar to the standard methods for employing part failure rates in the electronic industry. Since the first is limited to functional items, a second technique has been developed for thermostructural and similar systems. This method offers an improvement over the more commonly employed safety factor approach by reducing the degree of conservatism. It is based on the use of equational relationships to obtain a reliability measure. For the long environmental exposure conditions of space exploration, a third technique has been evolved. This prediction concept is based on a multiple linear regression analysis to correlate the relative importance of physical properties. The resulting equational relationship permits identification of in-process and acceptance test criteria as well as estimation of unit reliability of the delivered item.

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