1967-02-01

Risk Assessment in Complex Unattended Aerospace Systems 670661

When viewed on a National scale, data are presented to show that simple spacecraft have achieved a high degree of reliability while the complex spacecraft record leaves considerable room for improvement. Attainment of successful mission performance for complex spacecraft will therefore require a concentrated effort on the part of Management to maintain a constant appraisal of Program Risk.
Various risk assessment techniques for the design and fabrication/test phases of a program are presented. Component reliability assessment, via the standard design reliability techniques and the use of Bayesian Statistics, is suggested to be an approach for credible relative measures of equipment risk. A special adaptation of the Monte Carlo technique is suggested as a method for obtaining credible absolute measures of system risk. Reliability trend indicators are also cited as a means of risk appraisal.
Several examples are presented to illustrate the use to which these techniques have been applied.

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