An Emission and Fuel Usage Computer Model for Trucks and Buses 780630
This paper presents the development of a computer model to
simulate fuel usage and emission contributions of the past and
future truck and bus population in the United States. The projected
future years are beyond 1976 to 1990. The trends in vehicle
population growth, yearly miles traveled and ton-miles are also
calculated by the model. The model developed is flexible and brings
together several technical concepts which reflect recent inputs
from industry and government.
The formulation of the model is based on a systems approach, in
which the several submodels (the "Population,"
"Mileage," "Fuel Usage," and
"Emission") are interrelated. The preliminary
quantitative results are discussed to demonstrate the satisfactory
performance of the computer model. Increased rates of dieselization
are analyzed to determine their effect on reducing fuel consumption
and the impact on total emission contributions.
The use of the computer model to study an urban area for air
quality is discussed. It is pointed out that the data availability
remains a constraint for regional analysis. A case study of New
York is presented to illustrate the use of the model.