A rational scenario for likely fuels and lubricants trends over the next 20-25 years can be based on fairly precise knowledge of the technology that will be available. For the near term, increasing recognition of the constraints imposed by limited petroleum supplies, rising costs, and governmental regulations will result in efforts to maximize the efficient use of petroleum liquids as transportation fuels. These efforts will include optimization of the petroleum product mix, broadening of fuel specifications, greater use of fuel additives to provide acceptable fuel quality, and new lubricants including new chemical additives to improve overall vehicle fuel economy. Beyond 1990, synthetic fuels and advanced lubricants formulations will begin to make their contribution. Such interindustry groups as the SAE Fuels and Lubricants Activity and the Coordinating Research Council will play increasingly important roles during this period of great change.
