1984-04-01

Fatality Trend Models 840879

This paper summarizes and compares three recent fatality trend models developed at the National Center for Statistics and Analysis, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The first applies standard seasonal adjustment techniques to monthly fatality estimates and provides an assessment of short-run trends. The second uses regression techniques to model annual fatalities in terms of employment and unemployment data. The third applies more sophisticated time series techniques, including statistical causation, to monthly data for fatalities and many potential explanatory variables. None of the models was designed for forecasting the future. But in helping explain the past they identify major influences on fatalities and estimate the strength of these relationships. This in turn guides forecasts.

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