To determine the effect of variation in geometry and material properties on the energy absorption during axial crush of aluminum circular tubes, Mahmood and Paluszny's predictive equations were coupled with PROBAN, a probabilistic analysis code in which the distributions of model parameters are input, and distributions of result parameters are calculated. For the purposes of this study, minimum values and typical distributions of the model parameters were assumed. Calculations based on minimum material properties and dimensions indicated that a mean load of 40.3 kN would be obtained. PROBAN analyses determined that the mean load that would be achieved 95% of the time, ranged from 41.8 to 44.6 kN, depending on the assumed distributions of yield strength and dimensions. This indicates that further lightweighting of the circular cross section is possible. This study also demonstrates that reliability methods can be successfully used in the design of automotive components.