Forecasting Engine and Airframe Development Cost 952031

Development programs for aircraft engines (272 programs) and airframes (338 programs) were evaluated with step-wise regression analysis to find correlations with program cost; i.e., the coefficients of parametric models. Data covering the last 50 to 60 years were included to obtain robust log-log models with approximately 20 independent variables. Standard errors (S.E.E.) less than 0.10 (log megabucks), and multiple correlation coefficients (R-Square) greater than 0.995 were obtained, validating the use of data from programs in the distant past. Some unexpected influence coefficients were found for program cost drivers.


Subscribers can view annotate, and download all of SAE's content. Learn More »


Members save up to 43% off list price.
Login to see discount.
Special Offer: With TechSelect, you decide what SAE Technical Papers you need, when you need them, and how much you want to pay.