The Prospects for Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Second-Stage Results of a Two-Stage Delphi Study 961698

A two-stage Delphi study was conducted to collect information that would enable a technical and economic assessment of electric (EV) and hybrid electric (HEV) vehicles. The first-stage worldwide survey was completed in fall 1994 while the second-stage was completed by summer 1995. The paper reports results from the second round of the survey and the major differences between the two rounds. This second-stage international survey obtained information from 93 expert respondents from the automotive technology field. The second stage response provided the following key results.
  • EVs will penetrate the market first followed by internal combustion engine powered HEVs while gas turbine and fuel cell powered HEVs will not have any significant penetration until after 2020. By 2020 EVs and internal combustion engine powered HEVs are projected to have approximately a 15% share of the new vehicle market. They will also cost significantly (18-50%) more and will have characteristics slightly inferior to 1993 gasoline baseline cars.
  • The AC (alternating current) induction motor is projected to be both technically and economically superior to the DC (direct-current) and DC brushless motors by 2020. The DC motor will be significantly less expensive in 2000 offsetting its declining technical competitiveness DC brushless motors are projected to be the most expensive throughout the study period.
  • Though generally declining significantly throughout the period, battery costs will remain high, especially for the high specific energy units.
  • EVs are believed to be effective in reducing urban emissions however, the costs of these vehicles must be reduced drastically.
  • Petroleum is expected to be the predominant source of fuel for hybrid vehicles through 2020.
  • The mean energy equivalent fuel economy of electric drivetrain vehicles is projected to be 20-40% greater than for conventional vehicles in 2000 and to rise a few percents during the projection period. Respondents anticipate only a 16% increase in conventional vehicle fuel economy from 2000 to 2020.


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