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Technical Paper

Method for the Exploration of Cause and Effect Links and Derivation of Causal Trees from Accident Reports

Individual flight accidents and incidents may vary in terms of quantitative characteristics, circumstances, and other external details. ...The identification of invariant logical patterns from flight accident reports, time-histories and other data sources is very important for enhancing flight safety at the level of the ‘pilot - vehicle -operational conditions’ system. ...The objective of this research project was to develop and assess a method for ‘mining’ knowledge of typical cause-and-effect patterns from flight accidents and incidents.
Technical Paper

Simulation of Traffic at a Four-Way Stop Intersection

Inputs to the program were based on field studies at three intersections in metropolitan Atlanta using mathematical models and Monte Carlo techniques. Field data were taken with the aid of a spring wound Esterline-Angus 20-pen event recorder and time lapse movies.
Technical Paper

A Probabilistic Approach to Multivariate Constrained Robust Design Simulation

The approach previously proposed by the authors, linking Response Surface Methodology with Monte Carlo Simulations, has revealed itself to be cumbersome and at times impractical for multi-constraint, multi-objective problems. ...The paper critically reviews the combined Response Surface Equation/ Monte Carlo Simulation methodology and compares it against the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) method, one of several Fast Probability Integration techniques. ...The Advanced Mean Value method shows significant time savings over the Response Surface Equation/Monte Carlo Simulation method, and generally yields more accurate CDF distributions. The paper also illustrates how by using the AMV method for distribution generation, robust design solutions to multivariate constrained problems may be obtained.
Technical Paper

Technology Impact Forecasting for a High Speed Civil Transport

This goal is achieved through the use of various probabilistic methods, such as Response Surface Methodology and Monte Carlo Simulations. Furthermore, structured and systematic techniques are utilized to identify possible concepts and evaluation criteria by which comparisons could be made.
Technical Paper

Analysis of Aerobatic Flight Safety Using Autonomous Modeling and Simulation

Possible applications include: aircraft design and education, applied aerodynamics, flight control systems design, planning and rehearsal of flight test and display programs, investigation of aerobatics-related flight accidents and incidents, physics-based pilot training, research into new maneuvers, autonomous flight, and onboard AI.
Journal Article

Uncertainty Analysis of Static Plane Problems by Intervals

We present a new interval-based formulation for the static analysis of plane stress/strain problems with uncertain parameters in load, material and geometry. We exploit the Interval Finite Element Method (IFEM) to model uncertainties in the system. Overestimation due to dependency among interval variables is reduced using a new decomposition strategy for the structural stiffness matrix and the nodal equivalent load vector. Primary and derived quantities follow from minimization of the total energy and they are solved simultaneously and with the same accuracy by means of Lagrangian multipliers. Two different element assembly strategies are introduced in the formulation: one is Element-by-Element, and the other resembles conventional assembly. In addition, we implement a new variant of the interval iterative enclosure method to obtain outer and inner solutions. Numerical examples show that the proposed interval approach guarantees to enclose the exact system response.
Technical Paper

A Probabilistic Design Methodology for Commercial Aircraft Engine Cycle Selection

The objective of this paper is to examine ways in which to implement probabilistic design methods in the aircraft engine preliminary design process. Specifically, the focus is on analytically determining the impact of uncertainty in engine component performance on the overall performance of a notional large commercial transport, particularly the impact on design range, fuel burn, and engine weight. The emphasis is twofold: first is to find ways to reduce the impact of this uncertainty through appropriate engine cycle selections, and second is on finding ways to leverage existing design margin to squeeze more performance out of current technology. One of the fundamental results shown herein is that uncertainty in component performance has a significant impact on the overall aircraft performance (it is on the same order of magnitude as the impact of the cycle itself).
Technical Paper

Forecasting the Impact of Technology Infusion on Subsonic Transport Affordability

The design of complex systems, such as commercial aircraft, has drastically changed since the middle 1970's. Budgetary and airline requirements have forced many aerospace companies to reduce the amount of time and monetary investments in future revolutionary concepts and design methods. The current NASA administration has noticed this shift in aviation focus and responded with the “Three Pillars for Success” program. This program is a roadmap for the development of research, innovative ideas, and technology implementation goals for the next 20 years. As a response to this program, the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory at Georgia Tech is developing methods whereby forecasting techniques will aid in the proper assessment of future vehicle concepts. This method is called Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF). This method is applied to a medium-range, intra-continental, commercial transport concept.
Technical Paper

Technology Assessment of a Supersonic Business Jet

This paper presents a quantitative process to track the progress of technology developments within NASA’s Vehicle Systems Program (VSP) as implemented on a Supersonic Business Jet (SBJ). The process, called the Technology Metric Assessment and Tracking (TMAT) process, accounts for the temporal aspects of technology development programs such that technology portfolio assessments, in the form of technological progress towards VSP sector goals, may be tracked and assessed. Progress tracking of internal research and development programs is an essential element to successful strategic endeavors and justification of the pursuit of capital projects [1].
Technical Paper

A General Effectiveness Methodology for Aircraft Survivability Assessments

The quantification of aircraft survivability in modern battlefield environments is a complex mathematical problem. In general, consideration must be given to the quantification of aircraft vulnerability to individual weapon systems, single encounter aircraft survivability, and the mathematical mapping of single encounter aircraft survivability into mission attrition. A methodology for quantifying the impacts of electronic warfare (EW) upon aircraft survivability is realized by the General Effectiveness Methodology (GEM) which is based upon a hierarchy of computer models. This paper describes this hierarchy of computer simulation tools which extensively employs probability theory to estimate the various engagement events such as aircraft detection, acquisition, missile launch, missile intercept, and probability of aircraft kill.
Technical Paper

Methodology for the Parametric Structural Conceptual Design of Hypersonic Vehicles

The design of hypersonic vehicles is influenced by tightly coupled interactions between aerodynamics, propulsion, and structures. Therefore, in the conceptual design phases, the identification and mitigation of potential problem areas and disciplinary interrelations are critical. Although the multidisciplinary character of hypersonic designs is well known, research in hypersonics is primarily focused on the isolated disciplines with side notes on the interactions. The designer has to integrate all the disciplinary information and create a successful system. This integration is a tedious and elaborate process involving time-consuming iterations. This paper proposes a new approach and entails the creation of Response Surface Equations from the various constituent disciplines considered. This method allows to quickly assess the implication of design decisions at the top level using the multiple disciplinary meta-models.
Technical Paper

An Application of a Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) Method to an Uninhabited Combat Aerial Vehicle

In today’s atmosphere of lower U.S. defense spending and reduced research budgets, determining how to allocate resources for research and design has become a critical and challenging task. In the area of aircraft design there are many promising technologies to be explored, yet limited funds with which to explore them. In addition, issues concerning uncertainty in technology readiness as well as the quantification of the impact of a technology (or combinations of technologies), are of key importance during the design process. The methodology presented in this paper details a comprehensive and structured process in which to explore the effects of technology for a given baseline aircraft. This process, called Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF), involves the creation of a forecasting environment for use in conjunction with defined technology scenarios. The advantages and limitations of the method will be discussed, as well its place in an overall methodology used for technology infusion.
Technical Paper

Eliminating Design Alternatives Based on Imprecise Information

In this paper, the relationship between uncertainty and sets of alternatives in engineering design is investigated. In sequential decision making, each decision alternative actually consists of a set of design alternatives. Consequently, the decision-maker can express his or her preferences only imprecisely as a range of expected utilities for each decision alternative. In addition, the performance of each design alternative can be characterized only imprecisely due to uncertainty from limited data, modeling assumptions, and numerical methods. The approach presented in this paper recognizes the presence of both imprecision and sets in the design process by focusing on incrementally eliminating decision alternatives until a small set of solutions remains. This is a fundamental shift from the current paradigm where the focus is on selecting a single decision alternative in each design decision.
Technical Paper

The Implementation of a Conceptual Aerospace Systems Design and Analysis Toolkit

The Conceptual Aerospace Systems Design and Analysis Toolkit (CASDAT) provides a baseline assessment capability for the Air Force Research Laboratory. The historical development of CASDAT is of benefit to the design research community because considerable effort was expended in the classification of the analysis tools. Its implementation proves to also be of importance because of the definition of assessment use cases. As a result, CASDAT is compatible with accepted analysis tools and can be used with state-of-the-art assessment methods, including technology forecasting and probabilistic design.
Technical Paper

Industry Experiences with Activity-Based LCA

In this paper, we discuss our experiences with applying an approach called Activity-Based Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) in industrial settings. In contrast to other Life-Cycle Assessment approaches, we have taken modern cost management practices such as Activity Based Costing as a basis for our approach to environmental impact assessment. The resulting method, Activity-Based LCA, is an extension of Activity-Based Costing as it handles costs, energy consumption and waste generation simultaneously under the presence of uncertainty in a single framework.
Technical Paper

Impact of Configuration and Requirements on the Sonic Boom of a Quiet Supersonic Jet

Market forecasts predict a potentially large market for a Quiet Supersonic Business Jet provided that several technical hurdles are overcome prior to fielding such a vehicle. In order to be economically viable, the QSJ must be able to fly at supersonic speeds overland and operate from regional airports in addition to meeting government noise and emission requirements. As a result of these conflicting constraints on the design, the process of selecting a configuration for low sonic boom is a difficult one. Response Surface Methodology along with physics-based analysis tools were used to create an environment in which the sonic boom can be studied as a function of design and mission parameters. Ten disciplinary codes were linked with a sizing and synthesis code by using a commercial wrapper in order to calculate the required responses with the desired level of fidelity.
Journal Article

Interval Finite Element Analysis of Structural Dynamic Problems

We analyze the frequency response of structural dynamic systems with uncertainties in load and material properties. We introduce uncertainties in the system as interval numbers, and use Interval Finite Element Method (IFEM). Overestimation due to dependency is reduced using a new decomposition for the stiffness and mass matrices, as well as for the nodal equivalent load. In addition, primary and derived quantities are simultaneously obtained by means of Lagrangian multipliers that are introduced in the total energy of the system. The obtained interval equations are solved by means of a new variant of the iterative enclosure method resulting in guaranteed enclosures of relevant quantities. Several numerical examples show the accuracy and efficiency of the new formulation.
Technical Paper

Formulation of an IPPD Methodology for the Design of a Supersonic Business Jet

The growth of international markets as well as business partnerships between U.S. and Asian-based firms has lead to an increased interest in an economically viable business jet capable of supersonic cruise and trans-Pacific range with one stop over (or non-stop trans-Atlantic range)1. Such an aircraft would reduce the travel time to these regions by as much as 50% by increasing cruise Mach number from roughly 0.85 to 2.0. In response to this interest, the 1996 AIAA / United Technologies / Pratt & Whitney Individual Undergraduate Design Competition has issued a Request for Proposal for the conceptual design of a supersonic cruise business jet. The design of this aircraft considered both performance and economic issues in the conceptual design phase. Through the use of Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Design of Experiments (DoE) techniques, the aerodynamics of this vehicle were modeled and incorporated into an aircraft sizing code, FLOPS.