The Prospects for Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Second-Stage Results of a Two-Stage Delphi Study
A two-stage Delphi study was conducted to collect information that would enable a technical and economic assessment of electric (EV) and hybrid electric (HEV) vehicles. The first-stage worldwide survey was completed in fall 1994 while the second-stage was completed by summer 1995. The paper reports results from the second round of the survey and the major differences between the two rounds. This second-stage international survey obtained information from 93 expert respondents from the automotive technology field. The second stage response provided the following key results. EVs will penetrate the market first followed by internal combustion engine powered HEVs while gas turbine and fuel cell powered HEVs will not have any significant penetration until after 2020. By 2020 EVs and internal combustion engine powered HEVs are projected to have approximately a 15% share of the new vehicle market.