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The environmental impact of aircraft, specifically in the areas of noise and NOx emissions, has been a growing community concern. Coupled with the increasing cost and diminishing supply of traditional fossil fuels, these concerns have fueled substantial interest in the research and development of alternative power sources for aircraft. In 2003, NASA and the Department of Defense awarded a five year research cooperative agreement to a team of researchers from three different universities to address the design and analysis of revolutionary aeropropulsion technologies.

In today’s atmosphere of lower U.S. defense spending and reduced research budgets, determining how to allocate resources for research and design has become a critical and challenging task. In the area of aircraft design there are many promising technologies to be explored, yet limited funds with which to explore them. In addition, issues concerning uncertainty in technology readiness as well as the quantification of the impact of a technology (or combinations of technologies), are of key importance during the design process. The methodology presented in this paper details a comprehensive and structured process in which to explore the effects of technology for a given baseline aircraft. This process, called Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF), involves the creation of a forecasting environment for use in conjunction with defined technology scenarios. The advantages and limitations of the method will be discussed, as well its place in an overall methodology used for technology infusion.