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It is important to quantitatively characterize the automotive events in order to not only accurately interpret their past but also to reliably predict and forecast their short-term, medium-term, and even long-term future. In this paper, several automotive industry related events, i.e. vehicle safety, vehicle weight/HP ratio, the emissions of CO2, HC, CO, and NOx, are analyzed to find their general trends. Exponential and power law functions are used to empirically fit and quantitatively characterize these data with an emphasis on the two functions’ effectiveness in predictability. Finally, three empirical emission laws based on the historical HC, CO, and NOx data are proposed and the impact of these laws on emission control is discussed.

The approaches of obtaining both fatigue strength distribution and fatigue life distribution for a given set of fatigue S-N data are reviewed in this paper. A new fatigue S-N curve transformation technique, which is based on the fundamental statistics definition and some reasonable assumptions, is specifically developed in this paper to transform a fatigue life distribution to a fatigue strength distribution. The procedures of applying the technique to multiple-stress level, two-stress level, and one-stress level fatigue S-N data are presented.

In the Big Data era, the capability in statistical and probabilistic data characterization, data pattern identification, data modeling and analysis is critical to understand the data, to find the trends in the data, and to make better use of the data. In this paper the fundamental probability concepts and several commonly used probabilistic distribution functions, such as the Weibull for spectrum events and the Pareto for extreme/rare events, are described first. An event quadrant is subsequently established based on the commonality/rarity and impact/effect of the probabilistic events. Level of measurement, which is the key for quantitative measurement of the data, is also discussed based on the framework of probability. The damage density function, which is a measure of the relative damage contribution of each constituent is proposed. The new measure demonstrates its capability in distinguishing between the extreme/rare events and the spectrum events.

Recent stringent government regulations on emission control and fuel economy drive the vehicles and their associated components and systems to the direction of lighter weight. However, the achieved lightweight must not be obtained by sacrificing other important performance requirements such as manufacturability, strength, durability, reliability, safety, noise, vibration and harshness (NVH). Additionally, cost is always a dominating factor in the lightweight design of automotive products. Therefore, a successful lightweight design can only be accomplished by better understanding the performance requirements, the potentials and limitations of the designed products, and by balancing many conflicting design parameters. The combined knowledge-based design optimization procedures and, inevitably, some trial-and-error design iterations are the practical approaches that should be adopted in the lightweight design for the automotive applications.

Vehicle exhaust components and systems under fatigue loading often show multiple failure modes, which should be treated, at least theoretically, with rigorous advanced bi-modal and multi-modal statistical theories and approaches. These advanced methods are usually applied to mission-critical engineering applications such as nuclear and aerospace, in which large amounts of test data are often available. In the automotive industry, however, the sample size adopted in the product validation is usually small, thus the bi-modal and multi-modal phenomena cannot be distinguished with certainty.

Fatigue life assessment is an integral part of the durability and reliability evaluation process of vehicle exhaust components and systems. The probabilistic life assessment approaches, including analytical, experimental, and simulation, CAE implementation in particular, are attracting significant attentions in recent years. In this paper, the state-of-the-art probabilistic life assessment methods for vehicle exhausts under combined thermal and mechanical loadings are reviewed and investigated. The loading cases as experienced by the vehicle exhausts are first categorized into isothermal fatigue, anisothermal fatigue, and high-temperature thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) based on the failure mechanisms. Subsequently, the probabilistic life assessment procedures for each category are delineated, with emphasis on product validation.

In product design and development stage, validation assessment methods that can provide very high reliability and confidence levels are becoming highly demanded. High reliability and confidence can generally be achieved and demonstrated by conducting a large number of tests with the traditional approaches. However, budget constraints, test timing, and many other factors significantly limit test sample sizes. How to achieve high reliability and confidence levels with limited sample sizes is of significant importance in engineering applications. In this paper, such approaches are developed for two fundamental and widely used methods, i.e. the test-to-failure method and the Binomial test method. The concept of RxxCyy (e.g. R90C90 indicates 90% in reliability and 90% in confidence) is used as a criterion to measure the reliability and confidence in both the test-to-failure and the Binomial test methods.

Fatigue testing and related fatigue life assessment are essential parts of the design and validation processes of vehicle components and systems. Fatigue bench test is one of the most important testing methods for durability and reliability assessment, and its primary function is to construct design curves based on a certain amount of repeated tests, with which recommendations on product design can be advised. How to increase the accuracy of predictions from test results, the associated life assessment, and to reduce the cost through reducing test sample size is an active and continuous effort. In this paper the current engineering practices on constructing design curves for fatigue test data are reviewed first.

This paper reviews the correlation concepts and tools available, with the emphasis on their historical origins, mathematical properties and applications. Two of the most commonly used statistical correlation indicators, i.e., modal assurance criterion (MAC) for structural deformation pattern identification/correlation and the coefficient of determination (R2) for data correlation are investigated. The mathematical structure of R2 is critically examined, and the physical meanings and their implications are discussed. Based on the insights gained from these analyses, a data scatter measure and a dependency measure are proposed. The applications of the measures for both linear and nonlinear data are also discussed. Finally, several worked examples in vehicle dynamics analysis and statistical data analyses are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of these concepts.

Thermo-mechanical fatigue (TMF) resistance characterization and life assessment are extremely important in the durability/reliability design and validation of vehicle exhaust components/systems, which are subjected to combined thermal and mechanical loadings during operation. The current thermal-fatigue related design and validation for exhaust products are essentially based on testing and the interpretation of test results. However, thermal-fatigue testing are costly and time consuming, therefore, computer aided engineering (CAE) based virtual thermal-fatigue life assessment tools with predictive powers are strongly desired. Many thermal-fatigue methods have been developed and eventually implemented into the CAE tools; however, most of them are based on deterministic life assessment approach, which cannot provide satisfactory explanation for the observed uncertainties introduced in thermal-fatigue failure data.

Active regeneration systems for cleaning diesel exhaust can operate at extremely high temperatures up to 1000°C. The extremely high temperatures create a unique challenge for the design of regeneration structural components near their melting temperatures. In this paper, the preparation of the sheet specimens and the test set-up based on induction heating for sheet specimens are first presented. Tensile test data at room temperature, 500, 700, 900 and 1100°C are then presented. The yield strength and tensile strength were observed to decrease with decreasing strain rate in tests conducted at 900 and 1100°C but no strain rate dependence was observed in the elastic properties for tests conducted below 900°C. The stress-life relations for under cyclic loading at 700 and 1100°C with and without hold time are then investigated. The fatigue test data show that the hold time at the maximum stress strongly affects the stress-life relation at high temperatures.

A modern definition of quality control and improvement is the reduction of variability in processes and products. The reduced variability can be directly translated into lower costs, better functions and fewer repairs. However, the final quality of processes and products is sometimes derived from other measured variables through some implicit or explicit functional relationships. Sometimes, a tiny uncertainty in a variable can produce a huge uncertainty in a derived quantity. Therefore, the propagation of uncertainty needs to be understood and the individual variables need to be well controlled. More importantly, the critical factors that affect quality the most should be identified and thoroughly investigated. Design of experiments and statistical control plays central roles in finding root cause of failure, reduction of variability and quality improvement.

Durability/reliability design of products, such as auto exhaust systems, is essentially based on the observation of test data and the accurate interpretation of these data. Therefore, test planning and related data analysis are critical to successful engineering designs. To facilitate engineering applications, testing and data analysis methods have been standardized over the last decades by several standard bodies such as the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM). However, over the last few years, several effective testing and data analysis methods have been developed, and the existing standard procedures need to be updated to incorporate the new observations, knowledge, and consensus. In this paper, the common practices and the standard test planning and data analysis procedures are reviewed first. Subsequently, the recent development in accelerated testing, equilibrium based data fitting, design curve construction, and Bayesian statistical data analysis is presented.

Numerous test data have been generated in many testing institutions over the years and the historical information from previous similar designs and operating conditions can shed light on the current and future designs since they would share some common features when the changes are not drastic. To effectively utilize the historical information for current and future designs, two steps are necessary: (1) finding an approach to consistently correlate the test data; (2) utilizing Bayesian statistics, which can provide a rigorous mathematical tool for extracting useful information from the historical data. In this paper, a procedure for test sample size reduction is proposed based on historical fatigue S-N test data and Bayesian statistics. First, the statistical information is extracted from a large amount of fatigue test data collected over the years.

High-temperature thermal-mechanical systems are considered as an indispensable solution to modern vehicle emission control. Such systems include advanced engines, manifolds, thermal regeneration systems, and many other systems. Creep, fatigue, oxidation, or their combinations are the fundamental underlying material degradation and failure mechanisms in these systems subjected to combined thermal and mechanical loadings. Therefore, the basic understanding and modeling of these mechanisms are crucial in engineering designs. In this paper, the state-of-the-art methods of damage/failure modeling and life assessment for components under thermal-fatigue loading, are reviewed first. Subsequently, a new general life assessment procedure is developed for components subjected to variable amplitude thermal- and mechanical- loadings, with an emphasis on hold-time effect and cycle counting.

Durability and reliability performance is one of the most important concerns of a recently developed Thermal Regeneration Unit for Exhaust (T.R.U.E-Clean®) for exhaust emission control. Like other ground vehicle systems, the T.R.U.E-Clean® system experiences cyclic loadings due to road vibrations leading to fatigue failure over time. Creep and oxidation cause damage at high temperature conditions which further shortens the life of the system and makes fatigue life assessment even more complex. Great efforts have been made to develop the ability to accurately and quickly assess the durability/reliability of the system in the early development stage. However, reliable and validated simplified engineering methods with rigorous mathematical and physical bases are still urgently needed to accurately manage the margin of safety and decrease the cost, whereas iterative testing is expensive and time consuming.

Structural stress methods are now widely used in fatigue life assessment of welded structures and structures with stress concentrations. The structural stress concept is based on the assumption of a global stress distribution at critical locations such as weld toes or weld throats, and there are several variants of structural stress approaches available. In this paper, the linear traction stress approach, a nodal force based structural stress approach, is reviewed first. The linear traction stress approach offers a robust procedure for extracting linear traction stress components by post-processing the finite element analysis results at any given hypothetical crack location of interest. Pertinent concepts such as mesh-insensitivity, master S-N curve, fatigue crack initiation and growth mechanisms are also discussed.

Driven by diesel engine emission regulation, more emission aftertretment products have been under development by Tenneco to address the Particular Matter (PM) and NOx reduction needs. The T.R.U.E. (Thermal Regeneration Unit for Exhaust) Clean active thermal management system is one of the examples to reduce PM. The system is designed to increase exhaust temperatures for DPF (Diesel Particulate Filter) regeneration. This product is exposed to high temperature and high oxidation. Therefore, thermal fatigue, creep, oxidation and the interaction become critical mechanism to be considered for its durability. One of the key challenges to validate this product is to find a way of accelerated testing for thermal, creep, and oxidation as well as for vibration. In this paper, accelerated durability test strategy for high temperature device like T.R.U.E Clean is addressed.

A statistic fatigue life assessment procedure is presented in this paper for estimating fatigue damage under stationary Gaussian multi-axial loadings with narrow-band frequency. The fatigue damage is determined by using the Miner-Palmgren rule in connection with a recently developed path-length based multi-axial cycle counting and fatigue life assessment method. In this procedure, the path length is determined by averaging sinusoidal waves with uniformly distributed phase angles while the cycles are estimated from the observation of peak counting results of stress components. Numerically simulated random loading paths with different degrees of non-proportionality are used here to compare the proposed statistical method with its time domain counterpart. Possible further improvement in this research direction is also indicated.