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The transportation sector is facing three revolutions: shared mobility, electrification, and autonomous driving. To inform decision making and guide smart transportation system development at the city-level, it is critical to model and evaluate how travelers will behave in these systems. Two key components in such models are (1) individual travel demands with high spatial and temporal resolutions, and (2) travelers’ sociodemographic information and trip purposes. These components impact one’s acceptance of autonomous vehicles, adoption of electric vehicles, and participation in shared mobility. Existing methods of travel demand generation either lack travelers’ demographics and trip purposes, or only generate trips at a zonal level. Higher resolution demand and sociodemographic data can enable analysis of trips’ shareability for car sharing and ride pooling and evaluation of electric vehicles’ charging needs.

People and their communities are looking for transportation solutions that reduce travel time, improve well-being and accessibility, and reduce emissions and traffic congestion. Although new mobility services like ride-hailing advertise improvements in these areas, closer inspection has revealed a discrepancy between industry claims and reality. Key decision-makers, including citizens, cities and enterprise, and mobility service providers have the opportunity to leverage connected vehicle and connected device data through cloud-based APIs. We propose a GHG data analytics framework that functions on top of a cloud platform to provide unique system-level perspectives on operating transportation services, from procuring the most environmentally and people friendly vehicles to scheduling and designing the services based on data insights.

For achieving viable mass customization of products, product configuration is often performed that requires deep understanding on the impact of product features and feature combinations on customers’ purchasing behaviors. Existing literature has been traditionally focused on analyzing the impact of common customer demographics and engineering attributes with discrete choice modeling approaches. This paper aims to expand discrete choice modeling through the incorporation of optional product features, such as customers’ positive or negative comments and their satisfaction ratings of their purchased products, beyond those commonly used attributes. The paper utilizes vehicle as an example to highlight the range of optional features currently underutilized in existing models. First, data analysis techniques are used to identify areas of particular consumer interest in regards to vehicle selection.

Computer programs and models are playing an increasing role in simulating vehicle crashworthiness, dynamic, and fuel efficiency. To maximize the effectiveness of these models, the validity and predictive capabilities of these models need to be assessed quantitatively. For a successful implementation of Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) models as an integrated part of the current vehicle development process, it is necessary to develop objective validation metric that has the desirable metric properties to quantify the discrepancy between multiple tests and simulation results. However, most of the outputs of dynamic systems are multiple functional responses, such as time history series. This calls for the development of an objective metric that can evaluate the differences of the multiple time histories as well as the key features under uncertainty.

To date, model validation metric is prominently designed for non-dynamic model responses. Though metrics for dynamic responses are also available, they are specifically designed for the vehicle impact application and uncertainties are not considered in the metric. This paper proposes the validation metric for general dynamic system responses under uncertainty. The metric makes use of the popular U-pooling approach and extends it for dynamic responses. Furthermore, shape deviation metric was proposed to be included in the validation metric with the capability of considering multiple dynamic test data. One vehicle impact model is presented to demonstrate the proposed validation metric.

Simulation based design optimization has become the common practice in automotive product development. Increasing computer models are developed to simulate various dynamic systems. Before applying these models for product development, model validation needs to be conducted to assess their validity. In model validation, for the purpose of obtaining results successfully, it is vital to select or develop appropriate metrics for specific applications. For dynamic systems, one of the key obstacles of model validation is that most of the responses are functional, such as time history curves. This calls for the development of a metric that can evaluate the differences in terms of phase shift, magnitude and shape, which requires information from both time and frequency domain. And by representing time histories in frequency domain, more intuitive information can be obtained, such as magnitude-frequency and phase-frequency characteristics.

As the world's largest auto producer and consumer, China is both the most promising and complex market given the country's rapid economic growth, huge population, and many regional and segment preference differences. This research is aimed at developing data-driven demand models for customer preference analysis and prediction under a competitive market environment. Regional analysis is first used to understand the impact of geographical factors on customer preference. After a comprehensive data exploration, a customer-level mixed logit model is built to shed light on fast-growing vehicle segments in the Chinese auto market. By combining the data of vehicle purchase, consideration, and past choice, cross-shopping behaviors and brand influence are explicitly modeled in addition to the impact of customer demographics, usage behaviors, and attributes of vehicles.

Vehicle restraint system design is a difficult optimization problem to solve because (1) the nature of the problem is highly nonlinear, non-convex, noisy, and discontinuous; (2) there are large numbers of discrete and continuous design variables; (3) a design has to meet safety performance requirements for multiple crash modes simultaneously, hence there are a large number of design constraints. Based on the above knowledge of the problem, it is understandable why design of experiment (DOE) does not produce a high-percentage of feasible solutions, and it is difficult for response surface methods (RSM) to capture the true landscape of the problem. Furthermore, in order to keep the restraint system more robust, the complexity of restraint system content needs to be minimized in addition to minimizing the relative risk score to achieve New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) 5-star rating.

Available methodologies for model bias identification are mainly regression-based approaches, such as Gaussian process, Bayesian inference-based models and so on. Accuracy and efficiency of these methodologies may degrade for characterizing the model bias when more system inputs are considered in the prediction model due to the curse of dimensionality for regression-based approaches. This paper proposes a copula-based approach for model bias identification without suffering the curse of dimensionality. The main idea is to build general statistical relationships between the model bias and the model prediction including all system inputs using copulas so that possible model bias distributions can be effectively identified at any new design configurations of the system. Two engineering case studies whose dimensionalities range from medium to high will be employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the copula-based approach.

In vehicle design, response surface model (RSM) is commonly used as a surrogate of the high fidelity Finite Element (FE) model to reduce the computational time and improve the efficiency of design process. However, RSM introduces additional sources of uncertainty, such as model bias, which largely affect the reliability and robustness of the prediction results. The bias of RSM need to be addressed before the model is ready for extrapolation and design optimization. This paper further investigates the Bayesian inference based model extrapolation method which is previously proposed by the authors, and provides a systematic and integrated stochastic bias corrected model extrapolation and robustness design process under uncertainty. A real world vehicle design example is used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.

Response Surface Model (RSM)-based optimization is widely used in engineering design. The major strength of RSM-based optimization is its short computational time. The expensive real simulation models are replaced with fast surrogate models. However, this method may have some difficulties to reach the full potential due to the errors between RSM and the real simulations. RSM's accuracy is limited by the insufficient number of Design of Experiments (DOE) points and the inherent randomness of DOE. With recent developments in advanced optimization algorithms and High Performance Computing (HPC) capability, Direct Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (DMDO) receives more attention as a promising future optimization strategy. Advanced optimization algorithm reduces the number of function evaluations, and HPC cut down the computational turnaround time of function evaluations through fully utilizing parallel computation.

Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) has been widely used to obtain a reliable design via an existing CAE model considering the variations of input variables. However, most RBDO approaches do not consider the CAE model bias and uncertainty, which may largely affect the reliability assessment of the final design and result in risky design decisions. In this paper, the Gaussian Process Modeling (GPM) approach is applied to statistically correct the model discrepancy which is represented as a bias function, and to quantify model uncertainty based on collected data from either real tests or high-fidelity CAE simulations. After the corrected model is validated by extra sets of test data, it is integrated into the RBDO formulation to obtain a reliable solution that meets the overall reliability targets while considering both model and parameter uncertainties.

Model validation is a process of determining the degree to which a model is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model. In reliability based design, the intended use of the model is to identify an optimal design with the minimum cost function while satisfying all reliability constraints. It is pivotal that computational models should be validated before conducting the reliability based design. This paper presents an ensemble approach for model bias prediction in order to correct predictions of computational models. The basic idea is to first characterize the model bias of computational models, then correct the model prediction by adding the characterized model bias. The ensemble approach is composed of two prediction mechanisms: 1) response surface of model bias, and 2) Copula modeling of a series of relationships between design variables and the model bias, between model prediction and the model bias.

Finite Element (FE) models are widely used in automotive for vehicle design. Even with increasing speed of computers, the simulation of high fidelity FE models is still too time-consuming to perform direct design optimization. As a result, response surface models (RSMs) are commonly used as surrogates of the FE models to reduce the turn-around time. However, RSM may introduce additional sources of uncertainty, such as model bias, and so on. The uncertainty and model bias will affect the trustworthiness of design decisions in design processes. This calls for the development of stochastic model interpolation and extrapolation methods that can address the discrepancy between the RSM and the FE results, and provide prediction intervals of model responses under uncertainty.

Design optimization techniques are widely used to drive designs toward a global or a near global optimal solution. However, the achieved optimal solution often appears to be the only choice that an engineer/designer can select as the final design. This is caused by either problem topology or by the nature of optimization algorithms to converge quickly in local/global optimal or both. Problem topology can be unimodal or multimodal with many local and/or global optimal solutions. For multimodal problems, most global algorithms tend to exploit the global optimal solution quickly but at the same time leaving the engineer with only one choice of design. The paper explores the application of genetic algorithms (GA), simulated annealing (SA), and mixed integer problem sequential quadratic programming (MIPSQP) to find multiple local and global solutions using single objective optimization formulation.

Model validation is a process to assess the validity and predictive capabilities of a computer model by comparing simulation results with test data for its intended use of the model. One of the key difficulties for model validation is to evaluate the quality of a computer model at different test configurations in design space, and interpolate or extrapolate the evaluation results to untested new design configurations. In this paper, an integrated model interpolation and extrapolation framework based on Bayesian inference and Response Surface Models (RSM) is proposed to validate the designs both within and outside of the original design space. Bayesian inference is first applied to quantify the distributions' hyper-parameters of the bias between test and CAE data in the validation domain. Then, the hyper-parameters are extrapolated from the design configurations to untested new design. They are then followed by the prediction interval of responses at the new design points.

Analytical models (math or computer simulation models) are typically built on the basis of many assumptions and simplifications and hence model prediction could be inaccurate in intended applications. Model validation is thus critical to quantify and improve the degree of accuracy of these models. So far, little work considers model validation for various design configurations so that model prediction is accurate in the intended design space. Furthermore, there is a lack of effective approaches that can be used to quantify model accuracy considering different number of experimental data. To overcome these limitations, objective of this paper is to develop a model validation approach for various design configurations with a reference metric for model accuracy check considering different number of experimental data.

Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) has become a vital tool for product development in automotive industry. Increasing computer models are developed to simulate vehicle crashworthiness, dynamic, and fuel efficiency. Before applying these models for product development, model validation needs to be conducted to assess the validity of the models. However, one of the key difficulties for model validation of dynamic systems is that most of the responses are functional responses, such as time history curves. This calls for the development of an objective metric which can evaluate the differences of both the time history and the key features, such as phase shift, magnitude, and slope between test and CAE curves. One of the promising metrics is Error Assessment of Response Time Histories (EARTH), which was recently developed. Three independent error measures that associated with physically meaningful characteristics (phase, magnitude, and slope) were proposed.

Multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) methods are commonly used for weight reduction in automotive industry. The design variables for MDO are often selected based on critical parts, which usually are close to optimal after many design iterations. As a result, the real weight reduction benefit may not be fully realized due to poor selection of design parameters. In addition, most applications require running design of experiments (DOE) to explore the full design space and to build response surfaces for optimization. This approach is often too costly if too many design variables are simultaneously considered. In this research, an alternative approach to address these issues is presented. It includes two optimization phases. The first phase uses critical parts for design iterations and the second phase use non-critical for weight reduction. A vehicle body structure is used to demonstrate the proposed strategy to show its effectiveness.

This paper presents an enhanced Bayesian based model validation method together with probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA). The PPCA is employed to address multivariate correlation and to reduce the dimensionality of the multivariate functional responses. The Bayesian hypothesis testing is used to quantitatively assess the quality of a multivariate dynamic system. Unlike the previous approach, the differences between test and CAE results are used for dimension reduction though PPCA and then to assess the model validity. In addition, physics-based thresholds are defined and transformed to the PPCA space for Bayesian hypothesis testing. This new approach resolves some critical drawbacks of the previous method and provides desirable properties of a validation method, e.g., symmetry. A dynamic system with multiple functional responses is used to demonstrate this new approach.