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Engineering design-decisions often involve many attributes which can differ in the levels of their importance to the decision maker (DM), while also exhibiting complex statistical relationships. Learning a decision-making policy which accurately represents the DM’s actions has long been the goal of decision analysts. To circumvent elicitation and modeling issues, this process is often oversimplified in how many factors are considered and how complicated the relationships considered between them are. Without these simplifications, the classical lottery-based preference elicitation is overly expensive, and the responses degrade rapidly in quality as the number of attributes increase. In this paper, we investigate the ability of deep preference machine learning to model high-dimensional decision-making policies utilizing rankings elicited from decision makers.

Autonomous vehicle navigation, both global and local, makes use of large amounts of multifactorial data from onboard sensors, prior information, and simulations to safely navigate a chosen terrain. Additionally, as each mission has a unique set of requirements, operational environment and vehicle capabilities, any fixed formulation for the cost associated with these attributes is sub-optimal across different missions. Much work has been done in the literature on finding the optimal cost definition and subsequent mission pathing given sufficient measurements of the preference over the mission factors. However, obtaining these measurements can be an arduous and computationally expensive task. Furthermore, the algorithms that utilize this large amount of multifactorial data themselves are time consuming and expensive.

An objective evaluation of ground vehicle performance is a challenging task. This is further exacerbated by the increasing level of autonomy, dynamically changing the roles and capabilities of these vehicles. In the context of decision making involving these vehicles, as the capabilities of the vehicles improve, there is a concurrent change in the preferences of the decision makers operating the vehicles that must be accounted for. Decision based methods are a natural choice when multiple conflicting attributes are present, however, most of the literature focuses on static preferences. In this paper, we provide a sequential Bayesian framework to accommodate time varying preferences. The utility function is considered a stochastic function with the shape parameters themselves being random variables. In the proposed approach, initially the shape parameters model either uncertain preferences or variation in the preferences because of the presence of multiple decision makers.

The complete lifecycle of complex systems, such as ground vehicles, consists of multiple phases including design, manufacturing, operation and sustainment (O&S) and finally disposal. For many systems, the majority of the lifecycle costs are incurred during the operation and sustainment phase, specifically in the form of uncertain maintenance costs. Testing and analysis during the design phase, including reliability and supportability analysis, can have a major influence on costs during the O&S phase. However, the cost of the analysis itself must be reconciled with the expected benefits of the reduction in uncertainty. In this paper, we quantify the value of performing the tests and analyses in the design phase by treating it as imperfect information obtained to better estimate uncertain maintenance costs.

Selecting the right transportation platform is challenging, whether it is at a personal level or at an organizational level. In settings where predominantly the functional aspects rule the decision making process, defining the mobility of a vehicle is critical for comparing different offerings and making acquisition decisions. With the advent of intelligent vehicles, exhibiting partial to full autonomy, this challenge is exacerbated. The same vehicle may traverse independently and with greater tolerance for acceleration than human occupied vehicles, while, at the same time struggle with obstacle avoidance. The problem presents itself at the individual vehicle sensing level and also at the vehicle/fleet level. At the sensing and information level, one can be looking at issues of latency, bandwidth and optimal information fusion from multiple sources including privileged sensing. At the overall vehicle level, one focuses more on the ability to complete missions.

Reliability and resiliency (R&R) definitions differ depending on the system under consideration. Generally, each engineering sector defines relevant R&R metrics pertinent to their system. While this can impede cross-disciplinary engineering projects as well as research, it is a necessary strategy to capture all the relevant system characteristics. This paper highlights the difficulties associated with defining performance of such systems while using smart microgrids as an example. Further, it develops metrics and definitions that are useful in assessing their performance, based on utility theory. A microgrid must not only anticipate load conditions but also tolerate partial failures and remain optimally operating. Many of these failures happen infrequently but unexpectedly and therefore are hard to plan for. We discuss real life failure scenarios and show how the proposed definitions and metrics are beneficial.

Multi-attribute decision making and multi-objective optimization complement each other. Often, while making design decisions involving multiple attributes, a Pareto front is generated using a multi-objective optimizer. The end user then chooses the optimal design from the Pareto front based on his/her preferences. This seemingly simple methodology requires sufficient modification if uncertainty is present. We explore two kinds of uncertainties in this paper: uncertainty in the decision variables which we call inherent design problem (IDP) uncertainty and that in knowledge of the preferences of the decision maker which we refer to as preference assessment (PA) uncertainty. From a purely utility theory perspective a rational decision maker maximizes his or her expected multi attribute utility.