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Probabilistic studies can be prohibitively expensive because they require repeated finite element analyses of large models. Re-analysis methods have been proposed with the premise to estimate accurately the dynamic response of a structure after a baseline design has been modified, without recalculating the new response. Although these methods increase computational efficiency, they are still not efficient enough for probabilistic analysis of large-scale dynamic systems with low failure probabilities (less or equal to 10-3). This paper presents a methodology that uses deterministic and probabilistic re-analysis methods to generate sample points of the response. Subsequently, tail modeling is used to estimate the right tail of the response PDF and the probability of failure a highly reliable system. The methodology is demonstrated on probabilistic vibration analysis of a realistic vehicle FE model.

Fatigue strength mean and standard deviation may be estimated by the Probit and 2-Point test methods. In this paper, methodologies for conducting the tests are developed and results from Monte Carlo simulation are presented. The results are compared with those from concurrent testing with the staircase method. While the Probit and 2-Point methods are intuitively attractive, their results are significantly different from those from the staircase method. The latter remains the best of the three.