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Technical Paper

MonteCarlo Techniques in Thermal Analysis – Design Margins Determination Using Reduced Models and Experimental Data

In the paper several application techniques of MonteCarlo (MC) method applied to thermal analysis of space vehicles are presented. Although these methods are widely used in other engineering domains, their introduction to the thermal one is quite recent and not fully developed in the industrial practice. This paper aims at showing that, even without demanding computation resources (all what presented has been obtained with a single processor PC) MonteCarlo analysis techniques, in a preliminary design phase, can support and integrate engineering judgment of the thermal designer. In particular, it is exploited the applicability of the method to reduced thermal models, with a clear advantage in terms of computation time. An original approach is proposed, and results are shown. The papers shows the applicability of the MC method to the case when experimental data of the uncertain parameters are available, using the bootstrap re-sampling techniques.
Technical Paper

Test-Model Correlation in Spacecraft Thermal Control by Means of MonteCarlo Techniques

In the paper some methods are presented, with the corresponding practical examples, related to MonteCarlo (MC) techniques for thermal model/test correlation purposes. The MonteCarlo techniques applied to model correlation are intended to be used as an alternative to empirical ‘manual’ correlation techniques, gradients methods, matrix methods based on least square fit minimization. First of all, Design Of Experiments (DoE) tools are used to determine the model response to uncertain parameters and the confidence level of such a response. A sensitivity map is built, allowing the design of the test to maximize the response of the system to the uncertain parameters. Techniques derived from the extreme statistics are used to extrapolate data beyond test limits, with a sufficient confidence in the queue behaviour.