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Journal Article

Time-Dependent Reliability of Random Dynamic Systems Using Time-Series Modeling and Importance Sampling

2011-04-12
2011-01-0728
Reliability is an important engineering requirement for consistently delivering acceptable product performance through time. As time progresses, the product may fail due to time-dependent operating conditions and material properties, component degradation, etc. The reliability degradation with time may increase the lifecycle cost due to potential warranty costs, repairs and loss of market share. Reliability is the probability that the system will perform its intended function successfully for a specified time interval. In this work, we consider the first-passage reliability which accounts for the first time failure of non-repairable systems. Methods are available in the literature, which provide an upper bound to the true reliability which may overestimate the true value considerably. Monte-Carlo simulations are accurate but computationally expensive.
Journal Article

Multi-Objective Decision Making under Uncertainty and Incomplete Knowledge of Designer Preferences

2011-04-12
2011-01-1080
Multi-attribute decision making and multi-objective optimization complement each other. Often, while making design decisions involving multiple attributes, a Pareto front is generated using a multi-objective optimizer. The end user then chooses the optimal design from the Pareto front based on his/her preferences. This seemingly simple methodology requires sufficient modification if uncertainty is present. We explore two kinds of uncertainties in this paper: uncertainty in the decision variables which we call inherent design problem (IDP) uncertainty and that in knowledge of the preferences of the decision maker which we refer to as preference assessment (PA) uncertainty. From a purely utility theory perspective a rational decision maker maximizes his or her expected multi attribute utility.
Journal Article

Efficient Probabilistic Reanalysis and Optimization of a Discrete Event System

2011-04-12
2011-01-1081
This paper presents a methodology to evaluate and optimize discrete event systems, such as an assembly line or a call center. First, the methodology estimates the performance of a system for a single probability distribution of the inputs. Probabilistic Reanalysis (PRRA) uses this information to evaluate the effect of changes in the system configuration on its performance. PRRA is integrated with a program to optimize the system. The proposed methodology is dramatically more efficient than one requiring a new Monte Carlo simulation each time we change the system. We demonstrate the approach on a drilling center and an electronic parts factory.
Technical Paper

Multi-Objectives Optimization of Fastener Location in a Bolted Joint

2013-04-08
2013-01-0966
During component development of multiple fastener bolted joints, it was observed that one or two fasteners had a higher potential to slip when compared to other fasteners in the same joint. This condition indicated that uneven distribution of the service loads was occurring in the bolted joints. The need for an optimization tool was identified that would take into account various objectives and constraints based on real world design conditions. The objective of this paper is to present a method developed to determine optimized multiple fastener locations within a bolted joint for achieving evenly distributed loads across the fasteners during multiple load events. The method integrates finite element analysis (FEA) with optimization software using multi-objective optimization algorithms. Multiple constraints were also considered for the optimization analysis. In use, each bolted joint is subjected to multiple service load conditions (load cases).
Technical Paper

Prediction of HVAC System Aero/Acoustic Noise Generation and Propagation using CFD

2013-04-08
2013-01-0856
With the advent of quieter powertrain and improved cabin acoustic sealing, there is an increased focus on noise generated in the HVAC unit and climate control ducting system. With improved insulation from exterior noise sources such as wind & road noise, HVAC noise is more perceptible by the occupants and is a key quality indicator for new generation vehicles. This has increased the use of simulations tools to predict HVAC noise during the virtual development phase of new vehicle programs. With packaging space being premium under the instrument panel, changes to address noise issues are expensive and often impractical. The current methodology includes the best practices in simulation accumulated from prior aero acoustics validation studies on fans, ducts, flaps and plenum volume discharge. The paper details the acoustic noise generation and propagation in the near field downstream of an automotive HVAC unit in conjunction with ducting system.
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