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The European Union road transport CO2 emissions regulation foresees mandatory targets for passenger vehicles. However, several studies have shown that there is a divergence between official and real-world values that could range up to 40% compared to the NEDC reference value. The introduction of the Worldwide Harmonized Test Protocol (WLTP) limited this divergence, but it is uncertain whether it can adequately address the problem, particularly considering future evolutions of vehicle technology. In order to address this issue, the recent EU CO2-standards regulation introduces the monitoring of on-road fuel consumption and subsequently CO2 emissions by utilizing On-Board Fuel Consumption Meters (OBFCM). In the near future, all vehicles should provide instantaneous and lifetime-cumulative fuel consumption signals at the diagnostics port. Currently, the fuel consumption signal is not always available.

A vital element of any vehicle-certification test is the use of representative values for the vehicle resistance forces. In most certification procedures, including the WLTP recently adopted by the EU, the latter is achieved mainly through coast down tests. Subsequently, the resistance values measured are used for setting up the chassis-dyno resistances applied during the laboratory measurements. These reference values are obtained under controlled conditions, while a series of corrections are applied to make the test procedure more repeatable and reproducible. In real driving, the actual vehicle road loads are influenced by a series of factors leading to a divergence between the certified fuel consumption values, and the real-world ones. An approach of calculating representative road loads during on-road tests can help to obtain a more unobstructed view of vehicle efficiency and, when needed, confirm the officially declared road loads.

With the adoption of the Worldwide harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP) and the Real Driving Emissions (RDE) regulations for testing and monitoring the vehicle pollutant emissions, as well as CO2 and fuel consumption, the gap between real world and type approval performances is expected to decrease to a large extent. With respect to CO2, however, WLTP is not expected to fully eliminate the reported 40% discrepancy between real world and type approval values. This is mainly attributed to the fact that laboratory tests take place under average controlled conditions that do not fully replicate the environmental and traffic conditions experienced over daily driving across Europe. In addition, any uncertainties of a pre-defined test protocol and the vehicle operation can be optimized to lower the CO2 emissions of the type approval test. Such issues can be minimized in principle with the adoption of a real-world test for fuel consumption.

The paper describes the development of a modelling approach to simulate the effect of the new Worldwide harmonized Light duty Test Procedure (WLTP) on the certified CO2 emissions of light duty vehicles. The European fleet has been divided into a number of segments based on specific vehicle characteristics and technologies. Representative vehicles for each segment were selected. A test protocol has been developed in order to generate the necessary data for the validation of the vehicle simulation models. In order to minimize the sources of uncertainty and the effects of flexibilities, a reference “template model” was developed to be used in the study. Subsequently, vehicle models were developed using AVL Cruise simulation software based on the above mentioned template model. The various components and sub-modules of the models, as well as their input parameters, have been defined with the support of the respective OEMs.

The Vehicle Energy Consumption calculation Tool (VECTO) is used for the official calculation and reporting of CO2 emissions of HDVs in Europe. It uses certified input data in the form of energy or torque loss maps of driveline components and engine fuel consumption maps. Such data are proprietary and are not disclosed. Any further analysis of the fleet performance and CO2 emissions evolution using VECTO would require generic inputs or reconstructing realistic component input data. The current study attempts to address this issue by developing a process that would create VECTO input files based as much as possible on publicly available data. The core of the process is a series of models that calculate the vehicle component efficiency maps and produce the necessary VECTO input data. The process was applied to generate vehicle input files for rigid trucks and tractor-trailers of HDV Classes 4, 5, 9 and 10.

The Vehicle Energy Consumption calculation Tool (VECTO) is used in Europe for calculating standardised energy consumption and CO2 emissions from Heavy-Duty Trucks (HDTs) for certification purposes. The tool requires detailed vehicle technical specifications and a series of component efficiency maps, which are difficult to retrieve for those that are outside of the manufacturing industry. In the context of quantifying HDT CO2 emissions, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission received VECTO simulation data of the 2016 vehicle fleet from the vehicle manufacturers. In previous work, this simulation data has been normalised to compensate for differences and issues in the quality of the input data used to run the simulations. This work, which is a continuation of the previous exercise, focuses on the deeper meaning of the data received to understand the factors contributing to energy and fuel consumption.

In 2023, the European Union set more ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars: the new fleet-wide average targets became 93.6 g/km for 2025, 49.5 g/km in 2030, going to 0 in 2035. One year away from the 2025 target, this study evaluates what contribution to CO2 reduction was achieved from new conventional vehicles and how to interpret forecasts for future efficiency gains. The European Commission’s vehicle efficiency cost-curves suggest that optimal technology adoption can guarantee up to 50% CO2 reduction by 2025 for conventional vehicles. Official registration data between 2013 and 2022, however, reveal only an average 14% increase in fuel efficiency in standard combustion vehicles, although reaching almost 23% for standard hybrids. The smallest gap between certified emissions and best-case scenarios is of 14 g/km, suggesting that some manufacturers’ declared values are approaching the optimum.