Technical Paper
Probabilities of Catastrophe in Lightning Hazard Assessments
2001-09-11
2001-01-2877
The airworthiness certification authorities specify overall probability levels for catastrophic and less severe effects on aircraft and their occupants. In lightning standards concerning threat levels and zoning for lightning attachments we speak of high and low probabilities. But, despite the certification authority’s overall figure, only one attempt has been made to interpret what that figure means for lightning protection. That one attempt was made under the EC funded FULMEN programme to estimate the degree of accuracy needed in the process of aircraft lightning attachment zoning. Without some figures, how do we know how good our designs have to be. Furthermore, as the number of flight-safety critical systems on our aircraft increases, how does the probability of failure of each change to ensure the overall figure remains the same?