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A simulation-based, system reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) method is presented that can handle problems with multiple failure regions and correlated random variables. Copulas are used to represent the correlation. The method uses a Probabilistic Re-Analysis (PRRA) approach in conjunction with a trust-region optimization approach and local metamodels covering each trust region. PRRA calculates very efficiently the system reliability of a design by performing a single Monte Carlo (MC) simulation per trust region. Although PRRA is based on MC simulation, it calculates “smooth” sensitivity derivatives, allowing therefore, the use of a gradient-based optimizer. The PRRA method is based on importance sampling. It provides accurate results, if the support of the sampling PDF contains the support of the joint PDF of the input random variables. The sequential, trust-region optimization approach satisfies this requirement.

Piston design is a challenging engineering problem which involves complex physics and requires satisfying multiple performance objectives. Uncertainty in piston operating conditions and variability in piston design variables are inevitable and must be accounted for. The piston assembly can be a major source of engine mechanical friction and cold start noise, if not designed properly. In this paper, an analytical piston model is used in a deterministic and probabilistic (reliability-based) multi-objective design optimization process to obtain an optimal piston design. The model predicts piston performance in terms of scuffing, friction and noise, In order to keep the computational cost low, efficient and accurate metamodels of the piston performance metrics are used. The Pareto set of all optimal solutions is calculated allowing the designer to choose the “best” solution according to trade-offs among the multiple objectives.

The statistical analysis of vehicle crash accident data is generally problematic. Data from commonly used sources is almost never without error and complete. Consequently, many analyses are contaminated with modeling and system identification errors. In some cases the effect of influential factors such as crash severity (the most significant component being speed) driver behavior prior to the crash, etc. on vehicle and occupant outcome is not adequately addressed. The speed that the vehicle is traveling at the initiation of a crash is a significant contributor to occupant risk. Not incorporating it may make an accident analysis irrelevant; however, despite its importance this information is not included in many of the commonly used crash data bases, such as the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Missing speed information can result in potential errors propagating throughout the analysis, unless a method is developed to account for the missing information.

Superior NVH performance is a key focus in the development of new powertrains. In recent years, computer simulations have gained an increasing role in the design, development, and optimization of powertrain NVH at component and system levels. This paper presents the results of a study carried out on a 4-cylinder in-line spark-ignition engine with focus on growl noise. Growl is a low frequency noise (300-700 Hz) which is primarily perceived at moderate engine speeds (2000-3000 rpm) and light to moderate throttle tip-ins. For this purpose, a coupled and fully flexible multi-body dynamics model of the powertrain was developed. Structural components were reduced using component mode synthesis and used to determine dynamics loads at various engine speeds and loading conditions. A comparative NVH assessment of various crankshaft designs, engine configurations, and in- cylinder gas pressures was carried out.

Vehicle restraint system design is a difficult optimization problem to solve because (1) the nature of the problem is highly nonlinear, non-convex, noisy, and discontinuous; (2) there are large numbers of discrete and continuous design variables; (3) a design has to meet safety performance requirements for multiple crash modes simultaneously, hence there are a large number of design constraints. Based on the above knowledge of the problem, it is understandable why design of experiment (DOE) does not produce a high-percentage of feasible solutions, and it is difficult for response surface methods (RSM) to capture the true landscape of the problem. Furthermore, in order to keep the restraint system more robust, the complexity of restraint system content needs to be minimized in addition to minimizing the relative risk score to achieve New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) 5-star rating.

We propose a new metamodeling method to characterize the output (response) random process of a dynamic system with random parameters, excited by input random processes. The metamodel can be then used to efficiently estimate the time-dependent reliability of a dynamic system using analytical or simulation-based methods. The metamodel is constructed by decomposing the input random processes using principal components or wavelets and then using a few simulations to estimate the distributions of the decomposition coefficients. A similar decomposition is also performed on the output random process. A kriging model is then established between the input and output decomposition coefficients and subsequently used to quantify the output random process corresponding to a realization of the input random parameters and random processes. What distinguishes our approach from others in metamodeling is that the system input is not deterministic but random.

Implications of decision analysis (DA) on engineering design are important and well-documented. However, widespread adoption has not occurred. To that end, the authors recently proposed decision topologies (DT) as a visual method for representing decision situations and proved that they are entirely consistent with normative decision analysis. This paper addresses the practical issue of assessing the DTs of a designer using their responses. As in classical DA, this step is critical to encoding the DA's preferences so that further analysis and mathematical optimization can be performed on the correct set of preferences. We show how multi-attribute DTs can be directly assessed from DM responses. Furthermore, we show that preferences under uncertainty can be trivially incorporated and that topologies can be constructed using single attribute topologies similarly to multi-linear functions in utility analysis. This incremental construction simplifies the process of topology construction.

In this paper a design methodology for automotive heat exchangers has been applied which brings robustness into the design process and helps to optimize the design goals: as to maintain an optimal coolant temperature and to limit the vehicle underhood air temperature within a tolerable limit. The most influential design factors for the heat exchangers which affect the goals have been identified with that process. The paper summarizes the optimization steps necessary to meet the optimal functional goals for the vehicle as mentioned above. Taguchi's [1] Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) methods have been employed to conduct this analysis in a robust way.

In this paper, thermal models are developed based on experimental test data, and the physics of thermal systems. If experimental data is available, the data can be fitted to mathematical models that represent the system response to changes in its input parameters. Therefore, empirical models which are based on test data are developed. The concept of time constant is presented and applied to development of transient models. Mathematical models for component temperature changes during transient vehicle driving conditions are also presented. Mathematical models for climate control system warm up and cool-down are also discussed. The results show the significance of adopting this concept in analysis of vehicle test data, and in development of analytical models. The developed models can be applied to simulate the system or component response to variety of changes in input parameters. As a result, significant testing and simulation time can be saved during the vehicle development process.

Taguchi method is a technology to prevent quality problems at early stages of product development and product design. Parameter design method is an important part in Taguchi method which selects the best control factor level combination for the optimization of the robustness of product function against noise factors. The air induction system (AIS) provides clean air to the engine for combustion. The noise radiated from the inlet of the AIS can be of significant importance in reducing vehicle interior noise and tuning the interior sound quality. The porous duct has been introduced into the AIS to reduce the snorkel noise. It helps with both the system layout and isolation by reducing transmitted vibration. A CAE simulation procedure has been developed and validated to predict the snorkel noise of the porous ducted AIS. In this paper, Taguchi's parameter design method was utilized to optimize a porous duct design in an AIS to achieve the best snorkel noise performance.

Accurate numerical prediction of an engine thermal map at a wide range of engine operating conditions can help tune engine performance parameters at an early development stage. This study documents the correlation of an engine thermal simulation using the conjugate heat transfer (CHT) methodology with thermocouple data from an engine operating in a dynamometer and a vehicle drive cell. Three different operating conditions are matched with the simulation data. Temperatures predicted by simulation at specific sections, both at the intake and the exhaust sides of the engine are compared with the measured temperatures in the same location on the operating engine.

We have recently obtained experimental data and used them to develop computational models to quantify occupant impact responses and injury risks for military vehicles during frontal crashes. The number of experimental tests and model runs are however, relatively small due to their high cost. While this is true across the auto industry, it is particularly critical for the Army and other government agencies operating under tight budget constraints. In this study we investigate through statistical simulations how the injury risk varies if a large number of experimental tests were conducted. We show that the injury risk distribution is skewed to the right implying that, although most physical tests result in a small injury risk, there are occasional physical tests for which the injury risk is extremely large. We compute the probabilities of such events and use them to identify optimum design conditions to minimize such probabilities.

Many experiments have demonstrated that clutch overheating is a major cause of clutch deterioration. Clutch friction material deterioration not only leads to clutch failure, but also causes poor shift quality. Unfortunately, it is not practical to monitor each individual clutch temperature in a production vehicle due to high costs or technical challenges. This paper introduces a proposal for a virtual clutch temperature sensor to monitor the real time clutch temperature changes in Chrysler transmissions with PWM solenoid based control systems. Both vehicle and laboratory dynamometer (dyno) tests demonstrate that the model results match very closely with the thermocouple temperature measurements under many different driving conditions. The real time virtual temperature sensor provides a tool for clutch surface overheat protection and for design improvement and enhancement to shift quality.

In order to define and to optimize a thermal management system for a high voltage vehicular battery, it is essential to understand the environmental factors acting on the battery and their influence on battery life. This paper defines a calendar life aging model for a battery, and applies real world environmental and operating conditions to that model. Charge and usage scenarios are combined with various cooling/heating approaches. This set of scenarios is then applied to the calendar life model, permitting optimization of battery thermal management strategies. Real-world battery life can therefore be maximized, and trade-offs for grid energy conversion efficiency and fuel economy/vehicle range can be determined.

A common approach to the validation of simulation models focuses on validation throughout the entire design space. A more recent methodology validates designs as they are generated during a simulation-based optimization process. The latter method relies on validating the simulation model in a sequence of local domains. To improve its computational efficiency, this paper proposes an iterative process, where the size and shape of local domains at the current step are determined from a parametric bootstrap methodology involving maximum likelihood estimators of unknown model parameters from the previous step. Validation is carried out in the local domain at each step. The iterative process continues until the local domain does not change from iteration to iteration during the optimization process ensuring that a converged design optimum has been obtained.

Proposed LEV-III emission level will require improvements in NMOG, CO and NOx emissions as measured over FTP and US06 emission cycles. Incremental improvements in washcoat technologies, cold start calibration and catalyst system design are required to develop a cost effective solution set. New catalyst technologies demonstrated both lower HC and NOx emissions with 25% less platinum group metals (PGM). FTP and US06 emissions were measured on a 4-cylinder 2.4L application which compares a close-coupled converter and close-coupled + underfloor converter systems. A PGM placement study was performed with the close-coupled converter system employing these new catalyst technologies. Emissions results suggest that the placement of PGM is critical in minimizing emissions and PGM costs.

This paper studies the effects of various types of parking brake cable construction on parking brake system efficiency. Testing was conducted on a variety of common cable constructions from several industry sources. Cable construction variables include different types of conduit and wire strand. Input travel, input force, output travel, and output force were carefully measured under controlled conditions. Force, travel and hence work efficiencies were calculated and analyzed to identify any differences that might exist under the defined test conditions. Conclusions were drawn that might provide direction for improving parking brake system designs that have performance issues caused by poor cable efficiency.

Reliability is an important engineering requirement for consistently delivering acceptable product performance through time. As time progresses, the product may fail due to time-dependent operating conditions and material properties, component degradation, etc. The reliability degradation with time may increase the lifecycle cost due to potential warranty costs, repairs and loss of market share. Reliability is the probability that the system will perform its intended function successfully for a specified time interval. In this work, we consider the first-passage reliability which accounts for the first time failure of non-repairable systems. Methods are available in the literature, which provide an upper bound to the true reliability which may overestimate the true value considerably. Monte-Carlo simulations are accurate but computationally expensive.

Understanding reliability is critical in design, maintenance and durability analysis of engineering systems. A reliability simulation methodology is presented in this paper for vehicle fleets using limited data. The method can be used to estimate the reliability of non-repairable as well as repairable systems. It can optimally allocate, based on a target system reliability, individual component reliabilities using a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The algorithm establishes a Pareto front that can be used for optimal tradeoff between reliability and the associated cost. The method uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the system failure rate and reliability as a function of time. The probability density functions (PDF) of the time between failures for all components of the system are estimated using either limited data or a user-supplied MTBF (mean time between failures) and its coefficient of variation.

The fuel air ratio imbalance between individual cylinders can result in poor fuel economy and severe exhaust emissions. Individual cylinder fuel air ratio control is one of the important techniques used to improve fuel economy and reduce exhaust emission. California Air Resources Board (CARB) also has required automotive manufacturers to equip with on-board diagnosis system for cylinder fuel air ratio imbalance detection starting in 2011. However, one of the most challenging tasks for the individual cylinder fuel air ratio control and cylinder imbalance diagnosis is how to retrieve the cylinder fuel air ratio information effectively at low cost. This paper presents a novel and practical signal processing based fuel air ratio estimation method for individual cylinder fuel air ratio balance control and on-board fuel air ratio imbalance diagnosis.