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Technical Paper

Probabilistic Prediction and Validation of Vehicle Dynamic Performance by Concurrent Modeling Approach

2016-04-05
2016-01-0482
This paper presents the latest development of using an integrated modeling approach to estimate the statistical ranges of key vehicle dynamics performance in the early design phase. The virtual analytical tools predict the statistical confidence interval for specified ride and handling (R&H) metrics to enable a robust design by concurrently simulating the dimensional tolerance of the structural parts as well as the compliance variation. The compliance variation can be defined as load deflection properties of bushings as well as vehicle weight effects on preload. The model can then be used to better represent real world customer experience, allowing prediction of performance ranges relative to targets. In order to better predict these targets, measurements of physical vehicles were made and compared to the model to reveal the actual interactions relative to the theoretical.
Technical Paper

On Determining Road Profiles for Vehicle Level Reliability Growth Testing

2016-04-05
2016-01-0272
Pre-production vehicle validation is a critical step in understanding what potential issues end customers may find. Road profiles used in vehicle level tests are critical in finding failures. Clearly, if all the vehicles are tested only on highway, many failures will not be discovered. Therefore, using the right road profiles is very important. Traditionally, customer survey data is used to identify an appropriate road profile by defining a route that represents the Xth percentile customer. In this paper, a clustering method is applied to group all the customers into several groups. Each group is represented by a single road profile, and the entire customer population can be represented by multiple road profiles. If vehicles are tested using these profiles, then the road test can better represent the field condition, and hopefully failures can be discovered more efficiently.
Journal Article

Considerations of Vibration Fatigue for Automotive Components

2017-03-28
2017-01-0380
As an automobile is driven, its components and structures consistently experience the random excitations from road inputs and periodic vibration from engine firing. This could cause durability issues if the component structure isn’t fully validated. Vibration fatigue is a field of study regarding the assessment and improvement of a component’s or system’s robustness to vibration inputs. This paper introduces aspects of vibration fatigue to help designers, release engineers, and test engineers better understand the requirements, testing methodologies available, and strategies for improving vibration fatigue performance for the design and validation testing of their products. Vibration characteristics such as typical vibration levels and frequency content for varied areas in the automotive environment are introduced. Methodologies available for conducting actual vibration testing are introduced with listed advantages and disadvantages.
Journal Article

Warranty Forecasting of Repairable Systems for Different Production Patterns

2017-03-28
2017-01-0209
Warranty forecasting of repairable systems is very important for manufacturers of mass produced systems. It is desired to predict the Expected Number of Failures (ENF) after a censoring time using collected failure data before the censoring time. Moreover, systems may be produced with a defective component resulting in extensive warranty costs even after the defective component is detected and replaced with a new design. In this paper, we present a forecasting method to predict the ENF of a repairable system using observed data which is used to calibrate a Generalized Renewal Processes (GRP) model. Manufacturing of products may exhibit different production patterns with different failure statistics through time. For example, vehicles produced in different months may have different failure intensities because of supply chain differences or different skills of production workers, for example.
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