Analysis of car structures in future market and necessary policy for environment based on the vehicle performance and economic aspects
Increasing CO2 emissions from vehicles is becoming a major concern in automotive society, and variety of future types of cars are intensively investigated. However it is not clear which level of performance and cost must be achieved for the future cars to be available in a market and how much percentage of cars is necessary to be replaced by the future cars for the conservation of environment. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the possibility of market growth of future cars, as hybrid cars, electric vehicles and fuel cell cars, based on the performance and economic aspects. This paper investigates the emission reduction potential of these vehicles, and also compares the composition of vehicle types and emissions for a variety of scenarios of consumer characteristics, economic growth, fuel price, performance of cars, and carbon tax control measures. A model of user preference of cars was established from the statistic analysis of past data.