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This article presents strategies for evaluating the mean, variance, and failure probability of a response variable given measurements subject to both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. We focus on a case in which standard sensor calibration techniques cannot be used to eliminate measurement error since the uncertainties affecting the metrology system depend upon the measurement itself (e.g., the sensor bias is not constant and the measurement noise is colored). To this end, we first characterize all possible realizations of the true response that might have led to each of such measurements. This process yields a surrogate of the data for the unobservable true response taking the form of a random variable. Each of these variables, called a Random Datum Model (RDM), is manufactured according to a measurement and to the underlying structure of the uncertainty.

Solar proton events (SPEs) represent the single-most significant source of acute radiation exposure during space missions. Historically, an exponential in rigidity (particle momentum) fit has been used to express the SPE energy spectrum using GOES data up to 100 MeV. More recently, researchers have found that a Weibull fit better represents the energy spectrum up to 1000 MeV (1 GeV). In addition, the availability of SPE data extending up to several GeV has been incorporated in analyses to obtain a more complete and accurate energy spectrum representation. In this paper we discuss the major SPEs that have occurred over the past five solar cycles (~50+ years) in detail - in particular, Aug 1972 and Sept & Oct 1989 SPEs. Using a high-energy particle transport/dose code, radiation exposure estimates are presented for various thicknesses of aluminum. The effects on humans and spacecraft systems are also discussed in detail.

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) launched on August 12, 2005 and began aerobraking at Mars in March 2006. In order to save propellant, MRO used aerobraking to modify the initial orbit at Mars. The spacecraft passed through the atmosphere briefly on each orbit; during each pass the spacecraft was slowed by atmospheric drag, thus lowering the orbit apoapsis. The largest area on the spacecraft, most affected by aeroheating, was the solar arrays. A thermal analysis of the solar arrays was conducted at NASA Langley Research Center to simulate their performance throughout the entire roughly 6-month period of aerobraking. A companion paper describes the development of this thermal model. This model has been correlated against many sets of flight data. Several maneuvers were performed during the cruise to Mars, such as thruster calibrations, which involve large abrupt changes in the spacecraft orientation relative to the sun.

To meet the challenge of future deep space programs an accurate and efficient engineering code for analyzing the shielding requirements against high-energy galactic heavy radiations is needed. Such engineering design codes require establishing validation processes using laboratory ion beams and space flight measurements in realistic geometries. In consequence, a new version of the HZETRN code capable of simulating HZE ions with either laboratory or space boundary conditions is currently under development. The new code, GRNTRN, is based on a Green's function approach to the solution of Boltzmann's transport equation and like its predecessor is deterministic in nature. Code validation in the laboratory environment is addressed by showing that GRNTRN accurately predicts energy loss spectra as measured by solid-state detectors in ion beam experiments.

Recently a new emphasis has been placed on engineering applications of space radiation analyses and thus a systematic effort of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VV&UQ) of the tools commonly used for radiation analysis for vehicle design and mission planning has begun. There are two sources of uncertainty in geometric discretization addressed in this paper that need to be quantified in order to understand the total uncertainty in estimating space radiation exposures. One source of uncertainty is in ray tracing, as the number of rays increase the associated uncertainty decreases, but the computational expense increases. Thus, a cost benefit analysis optimizing computational time versus uncertainty is needed and is addressed in this paper. The second source of uncertainty results from the interpolation over the dose vs. depth curves that is needed to determine the radiation exposure.

Special exposure limit recommendations have been designated by the National Council on Radiation Protection (NCRP) for U. S. astronauts in low earth orbit (LEO) operations. These have been established from consideration of a 3% lifetime excess risk of cancer mortality for a 10-yr. active career. The most recent recommendations of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) have incorporated modified procedures for evaluating exposures with accompanying adjustments in career limits. Of special importance are the limit specifications for female exposures, which are approximately 40% less than those for males. Furthermore, radiosensitive organs unique to females require additional attention.

One goal of space radiation research is to reduce the computational time and increase the accuracy of various radiation calculations to aid in their use in a collaborative engineering environment. For example, a fast turn around time is a feature needed for comparison of radiation shielding effects associated with various design configurations of the International Space Station. Research toward this effort has been conducted on various forms of the low energy neutron Boltzmann equation. Simplified models involving the straight ahead approximation, which have fast computational speeds, have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center during the late 1980's as part of a larger high energy ion transport code. Various modifications to improve the accuracy of these computer codes have been an ongoing project. The goal to increase the accuracy of low energy neutron transport without effecting the fast computational times has been a successful ongoing research effort.

Prior studies have been performed where basic fabric lay-ups of the current Shuttle spacesuit were tested for radiation shielding capabilities. It was found that the fabric portions of the suit give far less protection from radiation than previously estimated. This is due to the porosity and non-uniformity of the fabrics and LCVG components. These findings were incorporated into the spacesuit model developed at NASA Langley Research Center to estimate exposures for mission planning and evaluation of safety during radiation field disturbance. Overall material transmission properties were also less than optimal. In order to evaluate the radiation protection characteristics of some proposed new spacesuit materials, fifteen test target combinations of current baseline and new proposed spacesuit materials were exposed to a low-energy proton beam at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Each target combination contained all of the necessary spacesuit layers, i.e.

As shielding materials are developed for protection against the hazards of galactic cosmic rays, it is desirable to develop a protocol for rapid assessment of shielding properties. Solid state energy loss detectors are often used to estimate the charge and energy of particles in ion beam experiments. The direct measurement is energy deposited in the detector. As a means of separating the charge components in typical shield transmission studies with observation, a stack of many such detectors is used. With high-energy beams and thin targets, surviving primaries and fragments emerging from the target have nearly-equal velocities and deposited energy scales with the square of the charge, simplifying the data analysis. The development of a transport model for the shield and detector arrangement and evaluation of prediction of the energy loss spectrum for direct comparison with the experimentally derived data allows a rapid assessment of the shield transmission characteristics.

The long term exposure of astronauts on the developing International Space Station (ISS) requires an accurate knowledge of the internal exposure environment for human risk assessment and other onboard processes. The natural environment is moderated by the solar wind, which varies over the solar cycle. The HZETRN high charge and energy transport code developed at NASA Langley Research Center can be used to evaluate the neutron environment on ISS. A time dependent model for the ambient environment in low earth orbit is used. This model includes GCR radiation moderated by the Earth’s magnetic field, trapped protons, and a recently completed model of the albedo neutron environment formed through the interaction of galactic cosmic rays with the Earth’s atmosphere. Using this code, the neutron environments for space shuttle missions were calculated and comparisons were made to measurements by the Johnson Space Center with onboard detectors.

Providing protection against the hazards of space radiation is a major challenge to the exploration and development of space. The great cost of added radiation shielding is a potential limiting factor in deep space missions. In the present report, we present methods for optimized shield design over multi-segmented missions involving multiple work and living areas in the transport and duty phase of lunar and Mars missions. The total shield mass over all pieces of equipment and habitats is optimized subject to career dose and dose rate constraints.

A detailed spacesuit computational model is being developed at the Langley Research Center for exposure evaluation studies. The details of the construction of the spacesuit are critical to an estimate of exposures and for assessing the health risk to the astronaut during extra-vehicular activity (EVA). Fine detail of the basic fabric structure, helmet, and backpack is required to assure a valid evaluation. The exposure fields within the Computerized Anatomical Male (CAM) and Female (CAF) are evaluated at 148 and 156 points, respectively, to determine the dose fluctuations within critical organs. Exposure evaluations for ambient environments will be given and potential implications for geomagnetic storm conditions discussed.

The projected radiation levels within the International Space Station (ISS) have been criticized by the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel in their report to the NASA Administrator. Methods for optimal reconfiguration and augmentation of the ISS shielding are now being developed. The initial steps are to develop reconfigurable and realistic radiation shield models of the ISS modules, develop computational procedures for the highly anisotropic radiation environment, and implement parametric and organizational optimization procedures. The targets of the redesign process are the crew quarters where the astronauts sleep and determining the effects of ISS shadow shielding of an astronaut in a spacesuit. The ISS model as developed will be reconfigurable to follow the ISS. Swapping internal equipment rack assemblies via location mapping tables will be one option for shield optimization.

The hazards of ionizing radiation in space continue to be a limiting factor in the design of spacecraft and habitats. Shielding against such hazards adds to the mission costs and is even an enabling technology in human exploration and development of space. We are developing a web accessible system for radiation hazard evaluation in the design process. The framework for analysis and collaborative engineering is used to integrate mission trajectory, environmental models, craft materials and geometry, system radiation response functions, and mission requirements for evaluation and optimization of shielding distribution and materials. Emphasis of the first version of this integrated design system will address low Earth orbit allowing design system validation using STS, Mir, and ISS measurements. The second version will include Mars, lunar, and other deep space mission analysis.

An experimental investigation was conducted to study the effectiveness of Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) flight displays as a means of eliminating Low Visibility Loss of Control (LVLOC) and Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) accidents by low time general aviation (GA) pilots. A series of basic maneuvers were performed by 18 subject pilots during transition from Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) to Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC), with continued flight into IMC, employing a fixed-based flight simulator. A total of three display concepts were employed for this evaluation. One display concept, referred to as the Attitude Indicator (AI) replicated instrumentation common in today's General Aviation (GA) aircraft. The second display concept, referred to as the Electronic Attitude Indicator (EAI), featured an enlarged attitude indicator that was more representative of a “glass display” that also included advanced flight symbology, such as a velocity vector.

The effect on general aviation (GA) pilots' abilities to fly a small airplane while using a prototype data-linked weather information system (WIS) display, located in various cockpit positions, was investigated in comparison to the effect on their flying of acquiring weather information through conventional means. Ten GA pilots performed en route flying tasks of varying difficulty while concurrently performing weather information acquisition tasks. Pilots' subjective workload ratings, weather information acquisition times and accuracy levels, and preliminary flight path parameter deviation data indicate that using a WIS display results in smaller flight path parameter deviations, lower workload, and faster and slightly more accurate information retrieval than when weather information is obtained via the radio.

High-speed computational procedures for space radiation shielding have relied on asymptotic expansions in terms of the off-axis scatter and replacement of the general geometry problem by a collection of flat plates. This type of solution was derived for application to human rated systems in which the radius of the shielded volume is large compared to the off-axis diffusion limiting leakage at lateral boundaries. Over the decades these computational codes are relatively complete and lateral diffusion effects are now being added. The analysis for developing a practical full 3D space shielding code is presented.

Traditionally radiation protection is left for evaluation after the completion of other engineering design processes followed by design changes to improve protection leading to off-optimum solutions of design problems. This project is a first attempt to develop optimization procedures with radiation constraint components from the beginning of the design process allowing performance optimization at reduced costs. The traditional limitation of radiation constraint analysis has been the slow computation time and the main focus thus far has been to apply high-performance computing to shielding analysis in preparation for MDO processes. We will describe the problem formulation, the framework for optimization, and progress towards developing highspeed computational procedures.

The great cost of added radiation shielding is a potential limiting factor in many deep space missions. For this enabling technology, we are developing tools for optimized shield design over multi-segmented missions involving multiple work and living areas in the transport and duty phase of various space missions. The total shield mass over all pieces of equipment and habitats is optimized subject to career dose and dose rate constraints. Preliminary studies of deep space missions indicate that for long duration space missions, improved shield materials will be required. The details of this new method and its impact on space missions and other technologies will be discussed. This study will provide a vital tool for evaluating Gateway designs in their usage context. Providing protection against the hazards of space radiation is one of the challenges to the Gateway infrastructure designs.

All but a small fraction of human space radiation exposure has been in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) where significant protection from extraterrestrial ionizing radiation is provided as a result of its deflection in the Earth's magnetic field. The placement of a manned outpost at the L1 Lagrange Point could mark the first long-term venture into a “deep space” radiation environment, giving rise to the associated problems of long-term space exposure. One of the first issues to address is providing protection within an L1 station from a large solar particle event. A safe haven area could be used over the duration of the event or one may consider the sleep stations where it is already necessary to have added shielding. The surrounding bodies of other closely packed crewmembers in such a shelter are expected to provide a significant fraction of a crewmember's total shielding.