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It is widely understood that cold ambient temperatures increase vehicle fuel consumption due to heat transfer losses, increased friction (increased viscosity lubricants), and enrichment strategies (accelerated catalyst heating). However, relatively little effort has been dedicated to thoroughly quantifying these impacts across a large set of real world drive cycle data and ambient conditions. This work leverages experimental dynamometer vehicle data collected under various drive cycles and ambient conditions to develop a simplified modeling framework for quantifying thermal effects on vehicle energy consumption. These models are applied over a wide array of real-world usage profiles and typical meteorological data to develop estimates of in-use fuel economy. The paper concludes with a discussion of how this integrated testing/modeling approach may be applied to quantify real-world, off-cycle fuel economy benefits of various technologies.

On-road fuel economy is known to vary significantly between individual trips in real-world driving conditions. This work introduces a methodology for rapidly simulating a specific vehicle’s fuel economy over the wide range of real-world conditions experienced across the country. On-road test data collected using a highly instrumented vehicle is used to refine and validate this modeling approach. Model accuracy relative to on-road data collection is relevant to the estimation of “off-cycle credits” that compensate for real-world fuel economy benefits that are not observed during certification testing on a chassis dynamometer.