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The design of complex systems, such as commercial aircraft, has drastically changed since the middle 1970's. Budgetary and airline requirements have forced many aerospace companies to reduce the amount of time and monetary investments in future revolutionary concepts and design methods. The current NASA administration has noticed this shift in aviation focus and responded with the “Three Pillars for Success” program. This program is a roadmap for the development of research, innovative ideas, and technology implementation goals for the next 20 years. As a response to this program, the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory at Georgia Tech is developing methods whereby forecasting techniques will aid in the proper assessment of future vehicle concepts. This method is called Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF). This method is applied to a medium-range, intra-continental, commercial transport concept.

The objective of this paper is to examine ways in which to implement probabilistic design methods in the aircraft engine preliminary design process. Specifically, the focus is on analytically determining the impact of uncertainty in engine component performance on the overall performance of a notional large commercial transport, particularly the impact on design range, fuel burn, and engine weight. The emphasis is twofold: first is to find ways to reduce the impact of this uncertainty through appropriate engine cycle selections, and second is on finding ways to leverage existing design margin to squeeze more performance out of current technology. One of the fundamental results shown herein is that uncertainty in component performance has a significant impact on the overall aircraft performance (it is on the same order of magnitude as the impact of the cycle itself).

As gas prices and climate change become the preeminent issues of today, more research effort is being directed towards the development of cheaper and cleaner alternative energy sources. These efforts have been further complemented with research into the applicability of these sources to air, land and sea borne vehicles. In this report a notional C-172R general aviation aircraft is retrofitted with a PEM power plant as a case-study. Lower bounds for useful load and range are set in such a way that the results can be useful in determining how much improvement in the technology would be required to power a useful general aviation vehicle. It is seen that even at the predicted 2015 fuel cell technology level (per US Department of Energy projections), PEM systems would still be infeasible for this vehicle due to low specific power. Further investigation revealed that a PEM-battery hybrid system had better chances of feasibility.

A solid business case is highly dependent upon a strategic technology research and development plan in the early phases of product design. The embodiment of a strategic technology development plan is the identification and subsequent funding of high payoff technology programs that can maximize a company’s return on investment, which entails both performance and economic objectives. This paper describes a technique whereby the high payoff technologies may be identified across multiple platforms to quantitatively justify resource allocation decisions and investment opportunities. A proof of concept investigation was performed on a fleet of subsonic, commercial aircraft.

This paper evaluates and compares a variety of sampling techniques, including both classical and modern Designs of Experiments, to create a more structured approach to selecting the most apt DoE for a specific type of problem. Six different designs are investigated through a design analysis for a notional commercial aircraft. The appropriateness of each sampling technique is determined based on a number of criteria, including code execution time, independent variable correlation, and distribution of data points throughout the design space. Additionally, the resulting models are evaluated using a systematic procedure for checking quality to quantify the accuracy and predictive capability of a given model.

The objective of this paper is to develop a generalized loss management model to account for the usage of thermodynamic work potential in vehicles of any type. The key to accomplishing this is creation of a differential representation for vehicle loss as a function of operating condition. This differential model is then integrated through time to obtain an analytical estimate for total usage (and loss) of work potential consumed by each loss mechanism present during vehicle operation. The end result of this analysis is a better understanding of how the work potential initially present in the fuel, batteries, etc. is partitioned amongst all losses relevant to the vehicle's operation. The loss partitioning estimated from this loss management model can be used in conjunction with cost accounting systems to gain a better understanding of underlying drivers on vehicle manufacturing and operating costs.