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This paper presents the methodology and results of an analysis of the available information on motor vehicle safety which could be used to provide a basis for establishing priorities for future Government and private sector efforts directed at enhanced crash protection. The work was stimulated by several factors: (1) 5 years have elapsed since the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) published a plan for motor vehicle safety research and development, (2) motor vehicles have changed substantially over the past several years, (3) the quantity and quality of accident data and vehicle crash performance information have increased dramatically over the past 5 years, and (4) Government policies and the amount of Government and private sector resources available for future efforts are changing.

This paper addresses the crash protection of occupants of the car fleet in transition from the late 1970's to the early 1980's. Three files of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration are used: the NASS 1979 to 1983, the PARS 1979 to 1983, and the NCSS 1977 to 1979. Fatalities, injured survivors by severity, and all accident involved car occupants are addressed. Risks of crash and injury outcomes are determined and analyzed as a function of risk influencing factors, especially factors that may vary significantly during the time period under consideration. Ejection risks and ejection patterns are addressed explicitly. Harm, an earlier introduced human casualty integrator, and harm distributions are extensively examined and updated with respect to earlier results. Harm and harm pattern changes, whether statistical fluctuations or systematic variations, are analyzed.

This paper addresses the risks of occupant casualties in highway accidents. Such risks are determined from U.S. accident experience in the past 10 years. Risks are analyzed as a function of vehicle type, car market class, make, nameplate, and model year for crashes of various impact types and various severities. Both absolute risks, per unit exposure, and relative risks are addressed. The influence of many exposure variables is examined and necessary adjustments, to a common set of exposure conditions, are made. The control variables for this purpose are: calendar year and car age; occupant's seating position, restraint status, and age; time and place of travel; and various roadway characteristics. Adjusted risks are reviewed versus major characteristics of cars as implied by make, nameplate, and model year. Occupant ejections and rollovers receive special attention due to their risk sensitivity to car class